Author Archives: Bryce Breeden

MLB DFS – Preferred Bats – 04/26/17

Man, how crazy was last night for DFS? Coors scored 27 runs, Detroit put up 19, then 5 other teams combined for 8+ runs. Hopefully you had some exposure to some of those squads. Whether you cashed last night or had a rough night, it’s on to the next slate! We have a 12 game slate on Wednesday night. After you read this article, hopefully you will have a good idea on what bats to target. Let’s get to it!

Side Note: Everyone in Coors is in play. This means I won’t include any Coors guys in this article.

Catcher

Cameron Rupp – $3,300 (DK)/$2,400 (FD) – vs MIA

I’m going to be looking to pay down tonight at catcher. With Coors on this slate + a few high priced pitchers that I’m targeting, I’ll need to save somewhere. I love Rupp tonight vs a lefty. In 2016, Rupp had a .415 wOBA and a .309 ISO vs LHP. He’s priced very nicely across the industry, which makes me like him even more. Even though he struggled in the early weeks of the season, he’s turned it up a little more the last few days. Over the last 6 games, he’s been on base at least once every game, including 4 extra base hits. Wei-Yin Chen isn’t exactly a gas can, but he did give up a hard-contact rate of 32% to righties in 2016. Overall, I love the savings Rupp offers.

Buster Posey – $3,500 (DK)/$3,600 (FD) – vs LAD

I’m looking at Posey more on DraftKings because of the savings that he offers. He matches up vs a lefty in Alex Wood. In his career, Posey has a .328 AVG, .401 wOBA, and a .224 ISO vs lefties. We all obviously know Posey is the best catcher in the league and he’s actually pretty cheap on DraftKings. Lock and load in cash games.

First Base

Anthony Rizzo – $4,800 (DK)/$4,600 (FD) – @ PIT

I love the Cubs on today’s slate, led by Anthony Rizzo. Tyler Glasnow is really struggling so far this year. He struggles with command, which is not good news for tonight. He faces a Cubs team that is very disciplined at the plate. Rizzo is a guy that won’t chase pitches. He forces the pitcher to throw strikes. I’m thinking a lot of Cubbies will get on base tonight, giving Rizzo ample opportunities to drive in some runs. Love him for cash + GPP’s if you can fit him.

Mike Napoli – $3,900 (DK)/$3,100 (FD) – vs MIN

Mike Napoli is definitely struggling early in the season, but he still has pop and is still pretty good against LHP. In GPP’s, we’re looking for guys that can give us some salary relief, but still have homer potential. I think that’s what Napoli offers here. He has a career .238 ISO and plays in a great hitters park. Sneaky dong call of the night is Napoli. GPP ONLY.

Second Base

Cesar Hernandez – $3,500 (DK)/$3,600 (FD) – vs MIA

Again, I’m targeting Hernandez more on DK because of how cheap he is. I really don’t understand their pricing on him. He has 6 double digit DK point performances in the last 8 games. He bats high in the order which will give him the most at-bats possible. In 2016, Hernandez had a .341 batting averaging vs lefties. He doesn’t provide much power, so I might end up staying away from him in GPP’s, but he’s almost a lock in cash games (on DK).

Brandon Phillips – $3,300 (DK)/$3,000 (FD) – @ NYM

As I was writing this article it was announced that Robert Gsellman would replace Noah Syndergaard on the hill tonight. This is definitely limits our pitching selection (CMart and Thor ruled out) but this definitely helps the ATL bats. I LOVE all the ATL bats tonight, especially on DK. Every one (except Freeman) was priced down because of the matchup vs Thor. Now, since we know they aren’t facing him, we can attack these bats. Phillips has been hitting the cover off the ball lately. He sports a 10-game hit streak, including a few multi hit games sprinkled in. He provides solid power and some steal upside. He’s far too cheap on DraftKings and even reasonably priced on Fanduel. Love Phillips in all formats tonight.

Third Base

Jake Lamb – $3,900 (DK)/$3,800 (FD) – vs SD

Jake Lamb might be my 2nd favorite play on the slate tonight. The DBacks bats have really been hot lately and Lamb has been right in the middle of it all. Trevor Cahill isn’t a great pitcher, so we can target all the DBacks tonight. We know Chase Field is one of the best hitters parks in all of baseball, so expect a lot of runs in this matchup. Lamb has always been a severe splits guy who hits VERY well against righties, especially at Chase Field. In his career, he has a .231 ISO and a .354 wOBA vs righties at home. He hits for average, but also has power upside and the ability to drive in runs. I LOVE Lamb in all formats tonight.

Shortstop

Jean Segura – $4,200 (DK)/$3,400 (FD) – @ DET

Segura returned from the DL last night, only to go 3-6 with a homerun, 3 RBI’s, and 2 R’s. Even before his injury he was really mashing the ball. He leads off in a lineup that is sneaky good. If he gets on base, he always has ample opportunities to score with the likes of Cano, Cruz, Seager, and Motter batting behind him. The M’s get a lefty tonight and not a great one. In 2016, Daniel Norris allowed a 35.1% hard contact rate against righties last year. On the other hand, Segura has been very serviceable vs lefties in his career. In 2016, he had close to a 30% hard contact rate vs lefties. I really love targeting lead off hitters on good teams and that’s what we’re getting here. Segura is fine in all formats.

Chris Owings – $3,400 (DK)/$3,100 (FD) – vs SD

As I mentioned with Jake Lamb, I really love all the ARI bats tonight. Owings has been absolutely on fire the last few nights. We usually like to target him vs lefties, but he’s been mashing the ball at Chase Field this year. In 11 games played at Chase so far this year, Owings has a .381 batting average, with 5 extra base hits and 15 RBI’s. This lineup always has a chance to go off in Chase Field and I believe this is another one of those nights for them. Owings is way too cheap on DraftKings and still reasonably priced on Fanduel. With Thor and CMart already scratched from the slate, we really don’t HAVE to find places to save. Love Owings in all formats (especially with an ARI stack).

Outfielders

Nelson Cruz – $4,200 (DK)/ $4,100 (FD) – @ DET

The ultimate lefty masher. Do I really need to break this one down for you? Fine, I’ll give you the numbers. In 2016, Nelson Cruz had a ridiculous .351 ISO and a .419 wOBA vs lefties. Wait, it gets even more ridiculous. If you break it down even more, Nelson Cruz had an AMAZING .495 ISO and a .497 wOBA vs lefties ON THE ROAD. Detroit is obviously a park upgrade over Seattle, so I’m ALL OVER Cruz tonight. Fire him up on Fanduel. Fire him up on DraftKings. Fire him up in cash. Fire him up in GPPs. By far my favorite play on the slate and that’s including the Coors guys.

Mike Trout – $5,100 (DK)/$4,800 (FD) – @ OAK

I really didn’t want to tout Mike Trout tonight because he’s obviously in play every night, but I wanted to say a few things on him real quick. First, we know he’s far and away the best player in the world right now. That being said, he might not be TOOOO high owned tonight. Coors just put up 27 runs last night, so people might just flock to Harper, Blackmon, Gonzalez and leave out Trout. Not me. Trout is obviously an amazing player vs righties and lefties, but he gets a lefty tonight. He’s hit for a higher average vs lefties his whole career and obviously has the power/speed combination we look for in GPPs. Keep the ownership in mind when building lineups tonight, because Trout could easily double dong.

Jay Bruce – $3,300 (DK)/$3,600 (FD) – vs ATL

Bruce is one of my favorite “one-off” plays tonight, especially on DraftKings where he’s just too cheap. We know the power is there for Bruce. Teheran isn’t a bad pitcher at all, but he does give up harder hits to lefties. In 2016, Teheran had a 47% fly ball rate to lefties, compared to just a 36% fly ball rate to righties. He also gave up 1.49 HR/9 last year to lefties, compared to just 0.77 HR/9 vs righties. When picking my one-offs, I’m looking for someone that has power. Jay Bruce can absolutely hit a homerun vs Teheran tonight, which is why I like him for GPPs.

 

Side Note: Like I mentioned in my Brandon Phillips write-up, I love ATL bats tonight on DK. Kemp, Phillips, Markakis, Inciarte are all underpriced. Wouldn’t mind throwing that stack with Freeman in a GPP tonight. Other stacks I like (besides Coors): ARI, CHC, SEA, PHI (GPP), SD (GPP).

Thanks for reading. Hopefully this article will give you a good idea on what bats are in play tonight. I’m interested to hear your feedback, so get at me on twitter (@breeden_bryce) or feel free to hit up the Fantasy Forecast team on twitter (@FanForecast). Thanks again and lets cash!!

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MLB DFS First Glance – 04/10 – Early Only

Hopefully everyone had a successful first week playing MLB DFS. If you didn’t, don’t fret! We have a lot of time left! In this article series, I’ll be touching up on my first thoughts of each slate. In today’s case, we have 5 games in the early slate and 5 games in the late slate. I will usually be able to write the whole day breakdown with each slate, but in this article I’m only going to focus on Early only. Now that I have you guys caught up, let’s get started! Read more

NBA DFS First Glance – 02/27

In this article, I am going to throw out some of my first thoughts when looking at the slate. The “First Glance” article should be up by 10 AM ET every day, which gives you guys something to look at before doing your own research. A lot could obviously change throughout the day, but this article is just to get your mind churning! Hopefully you guys won some money this weekend and hopefully we can keep it going on Monday!!! Read more

NBA DFS 02/23 – First Glance

We’re finally back in business folks. It’s been a long week with no NBA DFS, but it’s finally back!!! Unless you live under a rock, you already know of the huge trades that have went down during the All-Star Break. Boogie teaming up with AD should be so much fun to watch. By the way, what the hell was that deal? Kings gave up a diamond for a bag of shit. Anyways, another deal I liked was Houston trading for Lou Williams. Just added one of the better pure scorers in the game to a team that could already put up points!! Hell, I’m writing this at 11:00 PM on Wednesday night, so we still have 15 more hours until the Trade Deadline is here. There might have been some more trades that have gone down by the time you’re reading this! If any more do in fact go down that mess with Thursday’s slate, I’m sure someone on the Fantasy Forecast team will have you covered.

Anyways, in this First Glance article, I’m simply going to give you guys my early thoughts of the slate. I’m going to take a look at both DraftKings AND Fanduel, because the sites really do differ from each other. I also know a lot of people who play both, so this way this article will be for everyone! Whether it’s matchups or some pricing that sticks out, this is just my ‘first glance’ thoughts. It’s just something to get your mind churning in the morning! Let’s get to it!!

Author’s Note

Personally, I stick to DraftKings. I feel like I have a really good grasp on the MPE and roster construction on this site. See on Fanduel, everyone has to play 2 PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s and 1 C. That just isn’t the case on DraftKings. If you can figure out the MPE on DK, then you’ll find success.

Matchups

Nikola Vucevic – Playing center’s against Portland is definitely the optimal move. Portland gives up the 4th most points against opposing centers. With the full week off, Vuc should be in a fantastic spot.

Damian Lillard – Orlando gives up the 5th most FDP to opposing PG’s. Plus, POR is now without Aminu, Turner, and Plumlee. He’ll have high usage in what should be a nice game to target.

Andre Drummond – Charlotte is also not very good against opposing centers (47.7). Also account for the fact that the only true bigs they have healthy are Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams, Drummond should have a field day on the boards.

James Harden – This isn’t really a DvP write up with Harden. It’s just that Harden is in the best spot out of all the studs. Even though NO isn’t awful (they aren’t good either) against the PG/SG position, they play fast. Gaining Boogie might slow them down a bit, but Harden still has the best matchup amongst the studs.

Tristan Thompson – New York is still without Joakim Noah down low. With or without him, they aren’t very good against opposing centers (47.5 FDP/Game). TThom has had a double double every game since KLove went out with his knee surgery. Looks like another great spot for him to get another one.

Derrick Rose – We all know Kyrie Irving isn’t a good defender. Cleveland as a whole doesn’t guard the PG position well at all (5th worst). After the long week off, DRose should be rested and ready to go. Look for him to have a nice night.

Courtney Lee – Remember, this is purely a write up about who has good matchups. I’m not saying Lee is an amazing play (because it’s Courtney Lee), but he is in a great spot. Cleveland gives up the 3rd most FDP to opposing shooting guards. He could surprise and he’s cheap across the industry. (He has an illness, but is expected to play)

Darren Collison, Tyreke Evans, Willie Cauley-Stein – I’m just going to combine these guys because we know Denver is a team you can target everywhere. Plus, with Boogie being dealt away, all that usage has to go somewhere.

Things That Stick Out

DeMarcus Cousins + Anthony Davis – See, we know to attack Houston’s defense, but this is a situation I’ll probably stay away from on Thursday. At that price, there’s just too much uncertainty around this situation. It really is a great spot for both of these guys, but we don’t even know what the offense will look like. If I had to pick one, I’d go with AD. He’s cheaper + he doesn’t have to get acclimated to a new offense.

Other New Orleans News – First of all, take a look at that depth chart. E’twuan Moore is the ONLY shooting guard on the roster. They have 8 big guys. This tells me that Moore is just going to HAVE to play at least a good amount of minutes in a premier matchup AND he’s basically minimum price! Also, look for another trade tomorrow for NO. There’s no way they’ll be able to run with the roster they have right now.

Sacramento Kings – Obviously, there’s going to be A TON of shake up with the Kings. Like I mentioned, Collison + WCS will be very good plays against Denver. You also have Evans + Hield that are interesting too. Tyreke Evans is staying on his 25-27 minute restriction, but it’s a great matchup and he is a good player. Buddy Hield, or the next Steph Curry (I guess?????), is intriguing too. They obviously love him, so they’ll obviously going to play him. I’m interested to get a view at his minutes, but like I mentioned, it’s a plus matchup. Overall, the Kings have SO MANY value plays. Picking the right one’s will be key.

Value, Value, Value – With the trades circling (and injuries), there’s an opportunity to get a ton of value on this slate. Moore, WCS, Evans, Hield, Gary Harris, Lee, Aaron Gordon ect all will open up the opportunity to fit either Harden, Steph, LBJ, Jokic, AD, Boogie ect. Picking the right value + studs could be the blueprint to taking down a GPP.

Chris Paul News – CP3 has been cleared to play, which could change this slate. If he plays, it helps everyone in this game, solely because it’ll have a better chance to stay close.

My Early Lineup Thoughts

Over on DraftKings, I love to build a core 4 of players that I plug into every GPP lineup. If my core 4 hits, I’ll have a huge night. Right now, it’s looking like I might go cheap with my core 4, then sprinkle in different studs throughout. I’m thinking E’Twaun Moore ($3400) and Willie Cauley-Stein ($3600) are pure locks. I love them for cash and GPP’s. Obviously we don’t know about injury/trade news at this time, but I also really like Aaron Gordon ($4900), Gary Harris ($5200), Tyreke Evans ($4200), and obviously James Harden ($12,500). I’ve never been a fan of “coring” a stud, because if he doesn’t go off, then ALL my lineups would be dead. Obviously, these are just some early thoughts and a lot could change by lock tomorrow, but these are some of the guys that REALLY stick out to me. There’s a good chance, unless some other major news comes out before lock, that some combination of these guys will be my core 4.

 

Hopefully this First Glance write-up will give you all an idea of how to attack the slate! With the trade deadline tomorrow, you really need to keep an eye on social media or some sort of news outlet to see if any major trades go down. On this slate we have guys like DRose, Melo, Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, and Nikola Vucevic who have all had trade rumors surrounding them. If anything major goes down, the Fantasy Forecast team will have you backed up and will provide any information you need. If you have any other DFS related questions, shoot them to my personal twitter account (@breeden_bryce) or the Fantasy Forecast twitter account (@FanForecast) and we’ll get that taken care for you! Thanks for reading and happy grinding!!

DK NBA DFS – 01/18/17 First Glance

What a slate we have tonight. Westbrook, Harden, AD, Cousins, Durant, Giannis, Curry, and a bunch of others are on the slate tonight and honestly all are in a pretty solid spot! Tonight’s 9-game slate will separate the boys from the men. Hopefully this First Glance article will help you guys decipher which plays you like the best! I can already tell you tonight will come down to how you construct your rosters using the MPE. Let’s get started! Read more

DK NBA DFS – Review of 01/17/17 Plays

If you read yesterday’s “First Glance” article, you might have done pretty well. Today was a pretty crazy slate, primarily with Kyle Lowry being a scratch about 15 minutes before lock. This led to even more value opening up, which I’ll get to in a bit. I would like to review my “Positional Plays” from the night before, just to see how we did. I’m going to give insight on where I went wrong and where I went right. I’m also going to show you guys my main cash lineup I used, just so you can see how I did my lineup construction. So, why don’t we get started! Read more

DK NBA DFS – 01/17/17 First Glance

I am starting a “First Glance” article series that will either come out the night before or the early morning of the slate I am writing about. The goal for these articles is to give you guys something to read/look over during your morning research. Since we won’t have full injury updates, it won’t be as thorough, hence “First Glance”. These are just my very first thoughts about the slate when I first look at it. A lot of changes could happen throughout the day, but this article will be something that you can get started with every morning. Read more

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