Value Vault – NFL Week 1

After seven months and five days without football on a Sunday, we are finally here, NFL Kickoff 2017. There are 12 games on today’s main slate after the cancellation of Tampa Bay-Miami. There are four games with Vegas totals over 48, Oakland @ Tennessee, Arizona @ Detroit, Atlanta @ Chicago, and Seattle @ Green Bay. I have a ton of exposure in all four games and you should too. There are some games with low totals that I am interested in like Baltimore @ Cincinnati and Indianapolis @ Los Angeles.

Every week in this article I will give you my top three value plays on Fan Duel. I personally love this slate all around, but who doesn’t? We’re all just happy to kick back, crack a cold one and watch regular season NFL football.


Criteria

  • Each selection must be on Fan Duel’s main late swap slate
  • Each selection must be $6,500 or less
  • Kickers and Team Defense/Special Teams will not be included

Terrelle Pryor, WR, WSH – $6,200

Related imageWSH Implied Total: 23.2
Spread: 1.0
PHI FPPGA vs WR: 32
Weather Projection: 70 degrees, 8 MPH wind

 

Let’s state what we already know, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson are gone and it’s now the Pryor, Crowder, Reed show in Washington. This game is going a little under the radar overall and even though Pryor is priced at a very low $6.2K on FanDuel, he is not being talked about.

Only one team in the NFL threw for more passing yards per game than the Redskins last season (297.4) and that was the New Orleans Saints. Pryor is Kirk Cousins’ new number one receiver and expect Washington to continue to sling the ball out of the gate. While they will try to improve on their 20th ranked rushing offense from a year ago, the same cast of characters remains as they will bring back all five starters on the offensive line from 2016 and “Fat” Rob Kelley is still the starter (for now).

Pryor has the 2nd best WR-CB matchup this week according to Pro Football Focus as he grades out with a 45% advantage over his primary adversary Jalen Mills.  They project Pryor to see 9 or more targets which would give him his average target share from last season with the Browns. Don’t let the Eagles defense scare you away from Pryor in this one, I expect a huge debut from the Ohio State product.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – $5,900

Image result for randall cobbGB Implied Total: 27.5
Spread: -3.0
PHI FPPGA vs WR: 28
Weather Projection: 70 degrees, 10 MPH wind

 

As I stated on Coach and Cole this week, Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense are flying too far under the radar this week. Rodgers has owned the Seahawks secondary in their last two meetings going 44-56, 495 yards, 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The hard part with the Packers is pinpointing which receiver to target each week as Rodgers spreads the ball around better than any other quarterback in the NFL. This week I think Cobb will be the lowest owned of the three main Packers receivers, which makes him all the more appealing. 

Cobb has left DFS players with a sour taste after battling injury and having a down 2016. However, he returned to form as Green Bay got into the playoffs as he had five or more catches in all three postseason games and went for 116 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants in round one.

Seattle’s secondary has a tendency to struggle with speedy slot receivers. Cobb lined up in the slot 83% of the time in 2016 and figures to do more of the same this season. He will get rookie Shaquill Griffin for the majority of the game. Griffin acknowledged that Rodgers will target him and says he is up to the challenge. With as much chemistry Rodgers and Cobb have and as crafty as he is, it may be a welcome to the NFL type game for Griffin.

Theo Riddick, RB, DET – $5,900

Image result for theo riddickDET Implied Total: 22.75
Spread: 2.5
ARI FPPGA vs RB: 16
Weather Projection: DOME

 

With Ameer Abdullah getting all the attention in Detroit this offseason, everyone has seemed to forget about Theo. Riddick is listed as co-starter this week with Abdullah and we shouldn’t worry about Arizona’s sixth ranked rush defense from a year ago as Riddick is used predominantly as a pass catcher.

With a matchup in the red and minds on Abdullah, Riddick is too flying way under the radar. Last season he had three games over 23 FDP and averaged 13.5 FPPG. He only had one game under 8 FDP so he is a relatively safe option as well especially at his price point. He led all RB in receptions in 2016 and I expect these trends to continue as he is a great slot option for Matthew Stafford.

Pro Football Focus projects Riddick to get over five targets in this game and five carries out of the backfield. The last time these teams met both Riddick and Abdullah were healthy and he was a major factor in Detriot’s success in the game catching 10 balls for 53 yards and a touchdown.  The Cardinals ranked No. 1 in blitz frequency, and quick passes to Riddick are a likely scenario for the Lions to combat the rush. Remember on Draft Kings you get a full point per reception so Riddick is an even better play there.

 

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