What’s going on guys! It’s been a while since I’ve been able to get an article out. We’ve been putting a ton of work in with our cheat sheets and preparing for the 2017 NFL season so I hope you’re all as excited as we are.
Speaking of the Cheat Sheets, they’re still ONLY $2 per day and have been on FIRE since we started them. We’ve got some of the best minds behind the Forecast MLB department bringing you their favorite plays, stats and notes for the day’s slate. Get on board!
I’ve still wanted to get back to writing, so I decided to come up with a quicker/easier article series that will be just as useful as all of our other columns, my MLB Quick Hits.
In these articles, I will highlight one fact or piece of information that I find extremely important and noteworthy in every game on the slate. For example, there are 14 games on tonight’s main slate, so I will give you 14 pieces of information to use during your DFS research.
My goal is to release these articles by the lunch hour at the latest, so you have a loose framework for your research and a direction to look in.
Without further ado, here are my MLB Quick Hits for August 15th, enjoy!
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
Lefty Gio Gonzalez takes the mound for the Nationals tonight and don’t let Mike Trout scare you. The Angels can’t hit lefties.
Angels vs LHP:
- wOBA – 0.294 (29th)
- ISO – 0.120 (30th)
- wRC+ – 86 (25th)
With most of the attention on the higher-priced pitchers tonight, there could very well be some ownership leverage to be had with Gio Gonzalez tonight.
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Sonny Gray has been an elite ground-ball pitcher over the last month (61%) and faces a Mets team that has been somewhat cold over the last month. If you’re looking for a low-owned option, Gray is your guy. I highly doubt people will be playing him in a matchup with Jacob deGrom tonight.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Your first instinct may be to stack the Rays due to Marco Estrada being an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but not so fast. Estrada has actually dominated the current Rays to the tune of a 0.178 batting average over 118 at-bats with a 27.7% K-rate. He’s still allowed 5 home runs and 24 fly-outs, not straying away from his weakness, but he’s been far more effective against the Rays than most other teams.
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton now has 5 straight games with a home run, and 7 homers in his last 8 games. Many may think a date with Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner will spell the end to that streak, but I beg to differ. Over his career, Stanton has gone 8-16 off of Bumgarner 5 doubles and a home run.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox
Rick Porcello has allowed 18 home runs over his last 13 games. That’s miserable, especially for the reigning AL Cy Young winner. The Cardinals also have some rather low-key power threats. Look at Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk and Jose Martinez as lower owned home-run threats tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
It’s an incredibly small sample size, but Travis Shaw has gone 10-13 over his career against Ivan Nova. That’s a 0.769 batting average. Yes, you read that correctly. He’s clocked 3 homers and 8 RBIs off of Nova and comes in at a reasonable $3,600 price tag.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
The Reds are only implied for 3.7 runs tonight, a surprisingly low total against a mediocre pitcher like Kyle Hendricks. This is a great spot to go against Vegas and get some Reds one-offs, as Hendricks is allowing more than 1 HR/9 innings this season for the first time in his career.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
While Justin Verlander has been hot lately, Texas presents a tougher matchup than you may think. They dominate right-handed pitching at home, hold a 0.355 wOBA (5th), a 0.212 ISO (4th) and a wRC+ of 114 (5th). With the potential of hot/humid weather and other viable pitchers on this slate, Verlander is best suited for GPPs tonight.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins
Take a guess who has the highest strikeout rate on tonight’s slate…no, it’s not Jacob deGrom. No, it’s not Madison Bumgarner and no, it’s not Alex Wood – it’s Danny Salazar. On the 2017 season, Salazar boasts a Scherzer-esque K-rate of 32.7%. He’s returned to form since his return from the DL/bullpen and his 0.340 BABIP shows he was a victim of bad luck earlier in the season. He gets the Minnesota Twins who hold a 21.4% K-rate and are throwing Bartolo Colon on the mound, increasing the W chance for Salazar – consider him in all formats.
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Charlie Blackmon is red hot, but many will be scared off by the lefty-on-lefty match-up with Sean Newcomb tonight. Don’t be. Blackmon has posted an absurd 0.420 wOBA, 0.260 ISO and a 34.1% hard-contact percentage.
Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics
The A’s are always a stack that goes overlooked and they find themselves in a great spot tonight against gas-can Jason Hammel who owns a 4.8 SIERA and strikes out less than 20% of batters – a weakness of Oakland’s. Players from both sides of the plate are viable here if you’re looking for some ownership leverage.
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners
Don’t fade Nelson Cruz tonight. We’ve harped on it enough throughout the season, but he crushes lefties and has for his entire career. Over his 13 season in the league, he holds a 0.393 wOBA and a 0.258 ISO against lefties – talk about dominance…
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Alex Wood and the Dodgers are a -345 favorite tonight with the White Sox being implied for a minuscule 2.6 runs. He’s held both right and left-handed hitters below a 0.290 wOBA and comes in as the clear cash game option tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
Dollar for dollar, there may not be a better option on the slate than Dinelson Lamet. He posted upwards of a 30% K-rate in AAA and has transitioned nicely to the big leagues in that department (29.1% K rate). He gets the advantage of pitching in PetCo against a Phillies team that’s bottom 5 in just about every offensive category.