MLB GPP Strategy – 8/6/17

Sunday for the main site large GPPs we are looking at an 11 game slate with the last game as the 2:20 Nats/Cubs game.  This means no Coors game and only the first game of the KC/Seattle doubleheader.  Cool.  Lets talk.  A lot of SPs having great years are throwing as well as multiple gascans (Nick Martinez, we be looking at you).

The best hitting atmospheres on the slate would be the parks ranked as: Cincy > Houston > Atlanta.  Own accordingly.  The Red Sox will probably be most popular, and for good reason.  Pelfrey in Fenway can be the cause of a nuclear explosion.  Let’s get to the SPs and hitters with an eye toward luckboxing our way into 1st place in a 1000+ person GPP.

ASSUMED CHALK BASED OFF VEGAS LINES/TOTALS (and fine plays for cash games):  Red Sox, Twins, Cubs(?), Giancarlo Stanton, Chris Archer.

GPP PITCHERS to USE (In parentheses is “expected wOBA or xwOBA” based on statcast data from this season’s balls in play allowed, an experimental stat which may prove predictive):

Carlos Carrasco vs. Yankees:  Coming off a trainwreck of a start in Fenway.  The Yankees offense has hit the skids on the road however.  In the last month they are striking out 23.6% of the time.  Carrasco is the same ace with the same peripherals as always.  Kluber and Salazar have diced this lineup up this weekend.  Don’t fear paying up for his price vs. this opponent.  (xwOBA = .310)

Jimmy Nelson @ Rays:  I cant say I love this play, except that’s exactly why we should love the play.  There is a lot to fear.  Understandably, more DFSers will surely be buying his opponent today in Archer.  That’s why you need a few lineups with Nelson.  He is striking out 31.6% of left-handed hitters this season.  The Rays have multiple lefties who strike out a lot.  If his batted balls allowed find his defenders, the 10K+ CGSO is visibly possible.  Have some.  In a lineup where you don’t have him, have a Rays stack.  (xwOBA = .275)

Lucas Sims vs. Miami:  Save money here and pray Stanton and Ozuna don’t pop him.  In his 1st start he held the Dodgers scoreless over 6 innings but didn’t have the strikeout numbers he’s always posted in the minors.  Miami just whiffed 13 times against the Braves on Saturday and should be without Realmuto on Sunday.  If you want to pay up elsewhere, this is your guy.  (xwOBA = na)

Jon Lester vs. Nationals:  All that needs to be said about this play is Lester is striking out 33.9% of lefties this year.  Sunday lineups can change, but Lester is not scared of Harper, Murphy and Goodwin.  Many may look elsewhere with Archer, Nelson, Carrasco, Severino and Taillon all throwing today and considering his price against this opposition.  Set yourself apart with huge upside.  (xwOBA = .276)

GPP PITCHERS to FADE:  

Jameson Taillon vs. Padres:  I give the Padres too much credit.  I just don’t like using a pitcher with a horrible defense behind him.  The Pads have recently gotten back Solarte who makes great contact.  I could see him surely getting the win but I’ll be paying up for what I see as lower owned/higher upside elsewhere.  (xwOBA = .308)

Luis Severino @ Indians:  The Indians have too many guys good at making contact and the Yankees have too good of a bullpen.  They made the trades they did in order to limit their SPs exposure against lineups the 3rd time through the order.  I’m not sure the CGSO with 10K+ strikeouts is in the range of possibilities on Sunday.  (xwOBA = .275)

Jose Berrios v. Rangers:  Not sure where ownership will stand with him on Sunday, but I think his breakout has been somewhat overrated.  He does not have the high end K numbers of many other SPs on this slate, while he still walks far too many and allows too many flyballs.  I would choose him over Severino and Taillon, but overall I would recommend the fade for him as well.  (xwOBA = .299)

Danny Duffy v. Mariners:  He has remained split-happy this season.  Not being able to get righties out consistently is always going to be his problem it seems.  Its a double-header so its tough to predict the Mariners lineup and I’d assume 1 or more of Dyson/Martin/Cano/Seager get this game off, hurting his upside.  I’ll probably have 1 or 2 Mariners stacks.  (xwOBA = .304)

GPP HITTERS to USE:

Joey Votto:  He’s frickin Joey Votto.  In the best hitter’s park on the slate.

Jedd Gyorko:  Don’t forget his potential, approach, park factor and opposing pitcher.  He hasn’t bombed in awhile.  Its Sunday so we can’t be sure he will be in the lineup, but if so he would be my low-ownership double-dong pick and we’ve had success in this spot thus far.  

Jose Abreu:  Easy to gloss over at 1B for sexier names.  Righty in Fenway against a bad pitcher (and bullpen).  Have 1 share.

Freddie Freeman:  Have even more shares of this guy.  Urena has good traditional numbers but horrible underlying peripherals.

Rougned Odor/Joey Gallo:  Texas will not be chalk but these guys are always in the “never forget” category because of their approach and results.

Jose Bautista:  I know he has driven DFS players and Blue Jays fans crazy for a looooooong time now.  That’s when you buy a couple shares.  Fiers is a great target.

Nelson Cruz:  The Royals sick outfield defense cant defend what gets deposited over the wall.  He was just recently hurt but was in the Saturday lineup and should be a low owned double dong candidate.

Alex Avila:  Not sure who the Cubs will run out.  But if he is hitting 5th you will want a share against Fedde hitting behind the more popular mashers.  RBI opportunities could be plentiful.

Jordy Mercer:  Always against the lefties.

GPP TEAM STACKS to USE:  

Cardinals:  GABP.  Thee Small Park.

Orioles: Tough to project offensive ownership.  They might end up as chalk.  Getcha some Jones, Machado, Schoop, Davis and the others.

Braves: My favorite surely low owned stack.

Pirates:  A full platoon advantage lineup against a lefty who struggles with righties and a defense that blows.

Astros:  Will go lower owned against such a solid hurler as Stroman.  I can see a world in which he gets a 5-and-fly leaving up 4-2 and they end up scoring 15 runs in 3 innings against the Jays bullpen.  You basically just always have to have a share of these guys.

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