MLB GPP Strategy – 8/3/17

Coors is off this slate!  Sometimes Coors can be beneficial and sometimes it can be hell, but either way it clearly presents more work for the DFS player.  Unfortunately I had more Rockies than Mets last night, and my Mets lineups just were not on point.  On tonight’s slate nothing really jumps out at the viewer besides maybe the Red Sox and the Tigers/Orioles games.  We will definitely want a couple of those stacks.  In real life news, I will be attending the Tribe vs. Yankees game tonight!  Regarding DFS, I would NOT fade Corey Kluber.  Besides that, we will leave discussion of assumed chalk for others and get to some lesser owned commodities below.

ASSUMED CHALK BASED OFF VEGAS LINES/TOTALS (and fine plays for cash games):  Red Sox, Orioles, Alex Wood, Twins(?), Kluber.  I think most people will gravitate towards the Red Sox, Os and Tigers, in that order.


GPP PITCHERS to USE:

Trevor Cahill vs. Mariners:  Cahill had a rough outing in his 1st start for the Royals.  So do most starting pitchers at Fenway.  Pitching in Kansas City is a completely different and awesome world.  The Mariners have disappointed people all season despite a number of big names in the lineup.  After a full career of heavy ground-balling, now Cahill has added a well above average K numbers the past 2 seasons.  He might be quite popular, and should be tonight.  He would be my favorite Pitcher of the night.  (xwOBA = .290)

Rick Porcello v White Sox:  We know he has had a rough year.  He is in Fenway as well. But I think he is worth a couple shares.  He has the elite defense behind him and is facing a joke of a White Sox squad.  While the K upside probably isn’t there, a CGSO is a realistic outcome.  (xwOBA = .335)

Sean Newcomb vs. Dodgers:  The high-risk GPP play.  Everyone knows the Dodgers fare much better against right-handers, but very few will be willing to pull the trigger on a youngster against their platoon righty lineup.  Newcomb is 1-5 and opposed by Alex Wood, but he actually has the stuff to warrant DFS usage.  The stuff is top notch with an above average fastball and curve.  If Kluber, Wood and Cahill go busto, this is the one guy you may end up needing in a GPP winner.  (xwOBA = .334)


GPP PITCHERS to FADE:

Collin McHugh vs. Rays:  Still coming back slowly off injury, people may assume you can get some cheap guaranteed strikeouts attacking the Rays.  While that is somewhat true, I am going the other direction.  Mchugh was always a command pitcher, never walking above 6.8% of hitters in his 3 healthy prior years with the Astros.  His defense tonight is one of the worst in the majors, especially without Springer and Correa behind him. (xwOBA = na)

Sonny Gray @ Indians:  In general this is an interesting move from Oakland to the Yankees for Gray.  Some positives, some negatives.  I think tonight is a fade against the Indians veteran lineup.  We know that Lindor, Brantley, Ramirez and Santana can be tough to strike out.  Guys like Gio Urshela and Austin Jackson have also proven pesky this year if they are in the starting 9.  If the Indians can get the ball elevated the park gets hitter-friendly in August.  Also, if Gray gets in trouble in the 5th or 6th, the Yankees have the bullpen they need to pull him earlier than expected.  Those are a lot of ifs, but that’s what you have to consider when deciding to fade or lock in a bigger name.  (xwOBA = .296)

Alex Wood @ Braves:  Depending on the Braves lineup they can be tough to exploit from a GPP perspective.  I believe Flowers will start tonight as opposed to Suzuki, which would help Wood’s K upside.  You will want to know the starting lineup before locking him in.  Barnes is a solid framing catcher, but nobody is as good as Grandal, who I believe will sit out tonight.  I would not be surprised if he pitched well, or got yanked in the 6th in a tough platoon spot or for a pinch hitter if the Dodgers need runs.  Its a spot where I think a fade is appropriate in the larger GPPs.  (xwOBA = .256)


GPP HITTERS to USE:

Scooter Gennett:  4 HRs in 1 game.  Never forget.  The Pirates have 1 of the worst defensive outfields in baseball as well and Gennett has the platoon advantage behind guys who may take walks.

Gregory Polanco:  Has not recorded a hit in 2 weeks (mostly because he was out due to injury).  Have a few shares because he can dong and steal in the same night and won’t be very popular hitting down in the order.

Carlos Beltran:  He is over the hill right?  Well he is, until he isn’t.  You want to be first to the party.  Snell walks the whole world and Beltran has more of a HR profile from the right-handed batters box.  Take a shot or three.

Lucas Duda:  When one of the most knowledgeable front offices in all of sports trades for you, its a good thing.  He has rewarded the Rays so far in his 1st week there.  Hitting in the 2 hole, he should get 3 shots at McHugh with the platoon advantage and a heavy fly ball approach.

Lorenzo Cain:  He sat out yesterday and is day-to-day.  Check that he is in the lineup, and if so make sure you have a few shares against Gallardo, because nobody else will and he’s a star.

Mike Napoli/Robinson Chirinos:  Both guys will take shots swinging out of their shoes against Mejia.  They both let many DFS players down last night and will go lesser owned today.  Buy low.

Luis Valbuena:  Played no offensive role in the 7-0 stomping of the Phillies last night.  But the batted ball profile and matchup is one to take advantage of tonight.  Eickhoff has a splits problem and Valbuena is a guy who has done significant damage to far better pitchers and bullpens.

Brandon Belt:  Same story as this entire week.  Do not forget to play hitters against the A’s defense behind Graveman and their bullpen in a more spacious park.  This also goes for Brandon Crawford at the SS position

Odubel Herrera:  People may try and find their cheap 2nd pitcher with Parker Bridwell. The problem is he sucks.  The Angels are a tough defense to attack, but Bridwell gives up longballs at a very high clip and you cant defend a ball hit over the wall (OK sometimes Mike Trout can in fact do that).


GPP TEAM STACKS to USE:

Rays:  What was said about Duda relates to a lot of the Rays lineup.  They have guys that can do damage to McHugh and the Astros.  Have some Dickerson/Duda/Ramos/Miller combos and then have some with Morrison as well.

Reds/Giants: The defenses of the Astros, Pirates and As should consistently be attacked in GPPs.  To make a long story short.

Twins:  AJ Griffin flirts with warning tracks and outfield bleachers arguably more than any pitcher in the game.  He literally has a 58% fly ball rate in limited time this season (39 IP).  Don’t just pony up for Dozier and Sano.  Have a few different stack combos including the Twins SS and Catcher.

Astros Bottom of the Order:  Blake Snell may walk the entire top half of the order.  I think the total of 9.5 is too low for this game and would not be shocked by a 12-10 affair.

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