Last night was yet another perfect example of how baseball is totally unpredictable and how you can’t allow probabilities to become certainties mentally. I avoided Coors hitters and messes Sale/Scherzer but barely used the Cubs and could not parlay the correct Rays/Mariners/Rangers guys with Billy Hamilton. Tonight is similar to last night except without the huge name/high dollar aces in play. We’ve got 24 starting pitchers and lineups to consider and 1 game at the mecca, Coors Field. Again it will be tough to project ownership or even possibly base our lineups off fades.
ASSUMED CHALK BASED OFF VEGAS LINES/TOTALS (and fine plays for cash games): Rockies, Mets, Mariners, Astros, Keuchel,
GPP PITCHERS to USE:
Matt Moore v Athletics: You know we have a rough slate for pitchers if we are starting here right? I honest streamed him for a start in a season-long league tonight. Moore has obviously been awful this year, but I think he may have a little bit more ownership than a guy with his numbers would warrant. I am also signing up to invest. The Athletics are a team to attack. Hopefully the Giants defense is running out Posey and Crawford, and I assume they will be in the lineup to help Moore out. He could use any help he can get. (xwOBA = .349)
Zack Godley @ Cubs: The Cubs just whacked the DBacks for 16 runs in 8 innings last night. Its Wrigley in the summer when balls tend to jet outwards. Its a chance I am willing to take to find a surprisingly shocking outcome. The Cubs have guys who go deep in the count, which can slice either way for opposing pitchers. But the ceiling is in play. Lefties strikeout 24.8% of the time and groundout 59.6% of the time vs Godley. Those are shockingly great numbers for any pitcher. The Cubs will throw a number of lefties at him. Note: The total for this game is a slate-low 8. Sign me up. (xwOBA = .261)
Trevor Bauer @ Red Sox: Another scary option. The reasons why I am on him? He has had elite K numbers this season, the Red Sox are without Pedroia and the Indians bullpen is spent. Francona may give him a shot to get to 120 pitches thrown as long as he is avoiding rallies. Granted that is a tough proposition in Fenway as Sale and Carrasco learned last night. (xwOBA = .336)
Luke Weaver @ Brewers: The stuff seems legitimate. In his short time in the majors he has been plagued by an unsustainable super high line drive rate. The more predictable K number stands above 25%. The Brewers will always remain a strikeout lineup target, although you’ll want to check their starting 9 when the lineups are announced. (xwOBA = NA)
Dallas Keuchel v Rays: I am NOT fading him despite the high price and it being his 2nd start off the DL since a lengthy absence. Unless it is announced that he will not be allowed to throw upwards of 80 pitches, I will have some shares. The Rays traded Beckham which hurts their platoon abilities against lefties, where they already struggled. If allowed to throw 90 pitches I could see 6 or even 7 scoreless with his ability to generate the groundball double play. (xwOBA = .268)
GPP PITCHERS to FADE:
Jason Vargas @ Orioles: His ERA sits at 3.00 and he is 13-4 for the streaking Royals. However his FIP/SIERA/xFIP numbers are 4.09/4.80/4.92 respectively. Part of that is the great defense behind him which he will have as usual tonight. Most of the difference can be attributed to luck and his home park. Tonight he is in Baltimore and does not project well. He does not have strikeout numbers high enough to consider. (xwOBA = .303)
Brent Suter vs. Cardinals: He has gotten off to a great start this year. Don’t be fooled. He has a bad defense behind him and the park is one which could lead to a blow up. Not a GPP consideration and I will have a decent amount of Cardinals hitters. (xwOBA = .304)
Austin Pruitt @ Astros: We’ve gone 2-for-2 utilizing pitchers against the Astros for GPP purposes. Tonight is not the night to gamble again. Pruitt may end up having an OK career but his projected strikeout numbers, opponent and probable managerial leash are factors which should have you moving on from Pruitt tonight. Don’t be fooled into thinking the edge exists because the Astros are without Springer and Correa. (xwOBA = .336)
Jake Arrieta vs. Diamondbacks: Jon Lester had 9Ks in 4 innings last night, the DBacks are slumping and the Cubbies are streaking. I have to believe this will be the most popular SP of the night by a significant margin. I project the DBacks top 5 to be Peralta, Pollock, Goldschmidt, Lamb and JD Martinez. I don’t mind a fade here. I will probably have a few shares of Arrieta but mainly I am off him. Must-use in cash, but try and win the big ones. (xwOBA = .301)
GPP HITTERS to USE:
Joey Votto: If you had Rizzo last night, you won lots of chips and may have even scooped the pot. The main reasons I like Votto are that Trevor Williams doesn’t like to walk batters and Joey Votto never hits pop ups. Also PNC is better for fly balls from lefties as opposed to righties. Have a couple shares.
Josh Bell: Billy Hamilton hurt his ankle last night. Monitor his presence in the Reds lineup. If the defensive superstar sits, Bell and the rest of the Pirates get upgrades against the gascan Stephenson.
Orioles Catcher: Attacking the lefty Vargas in Camden. Whether its Castillo or Joseph, they both are more likely to hit a big fly than say a guy like Yadi Molina, who keeps it on the ground.
Mookie Betts/Mike Trout: The 2 best outfielders and possibly players in baseball. When people gravitate towards Coors their ownership gets a little bit too low. Neither has hit a HR or stolen a base in over a week. You would rather be on the bandwagon too early than too late.
Marcell Ozuna: People will gravitate towards Stanton tonight. And that is perfectly fine. Everyone should have themselves some Giancarlo tonight. But don’t forget this guy. Behind Dee Gordon/Stanton/Yelich he finds himself in some big RBI spots. Cole is a big fly candidate even in the big park.
Anthony Rendon: Didn’t this guy have like 3HR and 10RBI earlier in 1 game this season? Vance Worley and the Marlins bullpen stink rotten. Have some.
Cody Bellinger/Joc Pederson: 9 innings of Julio Teheran + the Braves bullpen is something I am definitely looking to attack for GPPs. See below in the stack section.
Mike Napoli: He is FULLY capable of doing what Joey Gallo just did last night. Miranda gives up 1.92 HR/9 and a 54.7% flyball rate against right handed hitters.
Kyle Seager: Didn’t deliver quite as big of a game as I had hoped last night. Cashner and this bullpen in Texas are a spot where you plug him in at 3B in GPPs and try and find that 2HR, 7RBI game at low ownership.
Matt Carpenter: If anybody reads these horrific articles, they probably can tell I use a little Matty Carpenter every night. The opposing starter being left-handed would not scare me off one bit.
Brandon Belt: Big game last night. People don’t give the late games the ownership they generally deserve. Asking the A’s defense to command that spacious outfield is asking too much. I could see a HR and a triple belted by this guy.
Mike Moustakas: He has 48 HRs in his last 162 games. Jeremy Hellickson has been a trainwreck this season.
GPP TEAM STACKS to USE:
Dodgers: Julio Teheran frankly has much more name recognition than most of tonight’s SPs. He also can’t get lefties out, which is exactly what the Dodgers throw at pitchers. Have various combos of Seager/Bellinger/Pederson/Grandal and Utley on the small chance he plays. Also mix in Turner and Puig.
Pirates: Especially if Hamilton is out.
Orioles: Attack Vargas.
Cardinals: I always have shares in their flyballing offense when they travel to Milwaukee.
Mariners: I actually was disappointed they only had 8 runs last night. The members of this Texas staff including today’s starter Andrew Cashner are just that bad.
Astros Bottom of the Order: We’ve seen this squad score double digit runs so many times this year. The runs scored/RBI points have come from everywhere too.