1 – Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Gronk a fantasy bust? I must be losing my mind! Not really, and to be honest it’s not as far fetched as it seems. Gronkowski was a fantasy bust last season and when a guy has a career average of 12 games played per season like he does, you have to ask yourself why should I use a 2nd round pick (current 19 overall adp) on a guy who is never healthy? You shouldn’t.
It’s that simple for me. Gronk can’t stay healthy and chances are he will not again in 2017. He has had a number of back surgeries and that doesn’t bode well for an everyday human being let alone an NFL football player. With Tom Brady still at the helm and the “hype” that surrounds his name, his draft stock continues to be high as can be. He is not worth what it will take to get him, unfortunately, odds are that the glory days are behind him. I wouldn’t draft Gronk in the first 10 rounds of your draft, let someone else feel the hangover of partying with the meat head from New York.
2 – Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
To say Robinson struggled in 2016 is an understatement. In 2015, he caught 80 balls for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. It looked safe to say that the Jaguars had found themselves a clear cut number one wide receiver. However, in his 3rd season in the NFL he absolutely flopped. Robinson finished 2016 with 73 catches for 883 yards and 6 touchdowns. His catch percentage dropped from 53% to 48% and those numbers came with the same amount of targets he had in the previous season.
Let’s not forget what happens with shiny new rookies in Jacksonville, they like to show them off. This year their new toy is Leonard Fournette out of LSU. They want to take pressure off of the promising but struggling Blake Bortles, so expect the Jaguars to pound the rock much more than they did in the previous years with Bortles at the helm. That means fewer passing plays and fewer overall passing attempts for this year’s Jaguar offense.
Of course, there is upside for Robinson this season but, how much stock can you put into a guy who regressed as much as Robinson did from 2015-2016 with a quarterback as inconsistent as Bortles? The answer is very little. Robinson may be worth a chance if he falls in your draft, but he is currently being drafted ahead of Terrelle Pryor, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, and Keenan Allen. His current average ADP currently makes him a third round pick and my opinion is that Robinson should be taken more in the 5th round range.
3 – Adrian Peterson, RB, New Orleans Saints
Adrian Peterson is a far cry from his MVP Caliber days in Minnesota. Face the facts, he has been on the decline for a few years now and was dreadful even before he tore his meniscus last season. Yes I know, the Minnesota offensive line was bad but he still wasn’t impressive as he averaged 1.9 yards per carry and seemed to lack his quick burst that showcased in the past.
The 32-year old will have a great supporting cast around him and that may be the biggest problem. Mark Ingram had a breakout year in 2016 and there is no way they just cast the Alabama product aside for a guy who barely has any tread left on the tires.
Peterson is currently going in the 6th round in most drafts according to his 65 average adp on Fantasy Pros. While that does make sense as running backs are at a premium in fantasy football, I still wouldn’t take a chance on Peterson unless he was left later in your draft.
Sports Illustrated reported in June that Peterson still looks “fearsome” physically. People overhype mini-camp news and will use that to think they have an inside edge over their opponents. Don’t be that guy. In Peyton Manning’s final season with the Broncos, reports were released that his arm looked stronger than ever, and we know that he had the definition of a “noodle-arm” in his final campaign.
The bottom line on Peterson is that he is 32, coming off of knee surgery, and plays running back in the NFL. That is not a formula for fantasy success. If you can get Peterson late in your draft it’s worth a flyer, but do not make him a round 5-8 selection for your fantasy team.