Top Tier ($8,800-$10,900)
Alex Wood ($9,400) seems to be the most appealing option in this tier considering Arizona’s home/road splits along with deGrom being overpriced. Wood is coming off of 3 straight dominate performances yielding 46+ FDP in each and only giving up 9 total hits. Arizona also ranks dead last in wRC+ and wOBA, 2nd last in ISO and have the 3rd highest K-rate against LHP on the road. This game also features the lowest projected run total on the slate (7.5) with the Dodgers being heavy favorites (-205) against Godley. This man is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball right now with a 1.83 ERA and no losses.
Mid Tier ($8,700-$7,600)
Zack Godley($8,300), on the other side of the LAD vs ARI matchup, looks to have the most upside in this price range in a game that isn’t expecting many runs at all. Godley is a very underrated pitcher and could be a good pivot off of Wood if you are looking to save some cash, which may not be a bad idea seeing all the high projected run totals on this slate. While Godley has been more effective against righties this season, he has limited lefty hitters to a .202 AVG this season who make up the meat of the Dodgers lineup (Seager, Bellinger, Peterson and Utley). This was a tough decision between Godley and Mike Leake, who is also a decent option in this price tier, but I think Godley has the slight edge with better K upside in a projected lower scoring game.
Low Tier (<$7,600)
Jon Gray($6,400) is priced extremely generously considering his huge K upside. He is one of my favorite plays on this slate against a very average Reds team. Yes, he is just coming off of injury and is playing in Coors but he still a very intriguing play tonight. His first game back on June 30th against a very good hitting D’backs team he threw an effective 6 innings of ball giving up 2 earned and striking out 10, giving him 52 FDP. Generally a pitcher coming off injury is one you may want to avoid for a few starts but Gray seems like his old self so don’t let that scare you away from him. I’m not expecting a huge strikeout game from him as the Reds don’t K a whole lot but he should still provide excellent value for his very cheap price.