MLB Plays of the Day – 6/12/17
Mondays are miserable, but MLB DFS makes them a bit more bearable. For tonight’s MLB slate, we’ve got 9 games on the docket with a plethora of solid teams to stack and a handful of aces on the mound.
Of the top three aces, only one of them draws my interest as both Yu Darvish (vs HOU) and Jacob deGrom (vs CHC) have tough matchups and aren’t trustworthy in cash games.
Below are my preferred plays at each position for tonight’s 9-game MLB DFS main slate:
Stephen Strasburg ($11,400)
As I stated above, the only arm that I have my eyes on tonight is Stephen Strasburg. He’s been phenomenal throughout the 2017 campaign, posting a 3.40 SIERA and a 3.24 xFIP while striking out 27.6% of batters (career 28.9% clip) with a 11.5% SwStr%. He’s also done a fantastic job of limiting hard contact (27.5%), in large part thanks to his 47.1% ground-ball rate.
He faces off with the Atlanta Braves tonight, whom he’s already 2-0 against this season with a 2.45 ERA and 21 strikeouts through only 14.2 innings of work. While those are massive strikeout numbers, the Braves only strike out 19.3% of the time against right-handed pitchers this season. While strikeouts may be a tad more difficult to come by tonight, the Braves also rank 21st in wOBA (0.313) and 29th in ISO (0.140) against right-handed pitching, deeming this matchup a cakewalk for Strasburg. Lock and load him in all formats tonight.
Welington Castillo ($2,900)
Fresh off of the disabled list, Castillo finds himself extremely underpriced for a player posting a career-high in batting average this season (0.309). He’s also managed to produce a 0.337 wOBA, a 37% hard-contact percentage and a 34.8% fly-ball rate.
He takes on the targetable Mike Pelfrey of the White Sox tonight, who’s 3,80 ERA is deceiving, but his 5.07 SIERA indicated a heaping load of regression on the horizon. To add to his brutal SIERA, he also holds a dismal 14% K-rate and an 8.3% walk rate. I expect the entire Orioles’ offense to warrant inflated ownership and Castillo is an affordable and low-key way to get yourself some exposure.
Wil Myers ($3,600)
I doubt Wil Myers will be above 20% owned in cash games and that’s extremely unfortunate, because he’s my favorite play of the day and my #DailyDinger call of the night. On the season, Myers has posted a respectable 0.335 wOBA, but his power has been through the roof. He’s produced a career-high 0.218 ISO and a 47.2% hard-contact percentage. Yes, a 47.2% rate. That is INSANE.
What’s even better? He gets to square off with Bronson Arroyo tonight. Arroyo is the proud owner of a career-worst 5.32 SIERA, 47.9% fly-ball rate and a 14.3% K-rate while allowing 2.84 HR/9 innings and a 34.7% hard-contact percentage. The Padres in general are a viable stack tonight in all formats (and affordable, at that), but I strongly recommend locking Myers into every single one of your lineups regardless of whether you stack them or not.
Brian Dozier ($3,600)
With double-digit FanDuel points in four of his last five games, Brian Dozier comes into his matchup tonight against Yovani Gallardo in a great spot. He’s posted a 0.324 wOBA, a 35% hard-contact percentage and a 43% fly-ball rate this season sitting atop the Twins order (which only heightens his stock).
His counterpart, Yovani Gallardo, has posted a 4.96 SIERA and a disappointing 16.8% K-rate with a 10.3% walk rate as regression continues to effect him late in his career.
With the power and speed combination that Dozier possesses at the top of the order combined with his surge at the plate, he comes at a steep discount for what he should be priced at. He’s a viable play in all formats.
Todd Frazier ($3,300)
To be honest, I don’t expect any of these players to be above 20% owned in cash games and it makes me so excited. Frazier is the one that I expect to be the lowest owned. He’s starting to heat up at the plate (8 hits in his last 4 games) and comes in to his matchup with Wade Miley with the platoon-advantage. Boyyyyy has it been an advantage for Frazier throughout his career. He owns a career 0.352 wOBA, 0.248 ISO, 35.3% hard-contact rate, 45.4% fly-ball rate and a 20% walk-rate against left handed pitching, making his $3,300 price tag an absolute joke.
Miley, while unusually effective this season, has still allowed a 35.2% hard-contact percentage, a 0.332 wOBA and a 12.1% walk rate to right-handed batters on the season while striking out less than 20%. He also recently got shelled by the Pirates (lasted 2.2 innings), and I sense another rocky start on the horizon.
Didi Gregorious ($3,300)
The Yankees’ lineup is so deep that I have no problem paying $3,300 for a batter that will likely be in the 6-7 hole. Gregorious has recorded 10 hits in his last 6 games and has posted a ridiculous 0.357 wOBA, a career-high 0.172 ISO, a 41.5% fly-ball rate and has held his strikeouts in check (14.4%).
He’ll hold the platoon advantage tonight over the right-handed pitcher Alex Meyer, who’s been brutal in his brief career against left-handed hitters, allowing a 0.380 wOBA, 1.65 HR/9 innings, a 33.8% hard-contact percentage and a 41.8% fly-ball percentage.
With what I find to be an extremely thin position tonight, Gregarious strikes me as the top play and the best value at the shortstop position tonight.
Andrew McCutchen ($3,400)
After a dreadful start to the 2017 campaign, Cutch has shown signs that he may be back. He’s recorded 7 hits in his last 3 games (3 of his last 5 hits went for extra bases) and comes into tonight’s game in arguably the most beautiful spot of any player on the slate. He matches up with the lefty Kyle Freeland tonight, the handedness that he’s absolutely obliterated this season.
He’s posted a monstrous 0.488 wOBA, 0.408 ISO, 42.9% hard-contact percentage and a 50% fly-ball percentage against lefties this season. Ummm…yeah….sorry Kyle.
Freeland on the other hand has allowed a 0.320 wOBA and a 10.3% walk rate to righties while only striking out 11.2% of them. If this doesn’t spell disaster, then I don’t know what does. While I already called Will Myers as my #DailyDinger, I’m going to double-down and roll with two and call McCutchen as well.