We’ve got our usual 1:05 PM ET Sunday Main Slate on Fanduel this afternoon and some intriguing pitching options toeing the rubber. For this edition of Prime Pitching, I’ll be switching it up and including my two favorite pitching options on the slate while also writing up my two least favorite options (in other words, two pitchers to stack against).
Chris Archer ($11,000) vs OAK
It’s safe to say that the Chris Archer of old is back and he clocks in as the top overall option on the slate today (as evident by his heightened price tag). On the season, Archer sports an elite 30.0% K-rate, 3.28 SIERA, 3.26 xFIP and only 0.83 HR/9. While his 39.2% hard-contact rate could raise some concerns, Archer has done a great job of limiting the long ball, in large part due to his career-high 13.2% SwStr%. He’s recorded double-digit strikeouts in 5 of his last 7 games while posting 50 or more FanDuel points in 4 of his last 6.
He matches up with the dismal Oakland Athletics, who rank 21st in wOBA against RHP (0.316) and have the third highest K-rate in the league against RHP at 24.8%. Archer has dominated the A’s to the tune of a 1.69 ERA over the past three seasons and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to build on that this afternoon.
Carlos Carrasco ($9,800) vs CWS
While Archer may be the safest play on the board given every pitcher’s recent performance, Carrasco still checks in as my favorite option this afternoon as FanDuel has completely mis-priced him.
Carrasco has certainly been disappointing as of late, but that doesn’t diminish the fact that he’s posted a 25.3% K-rate, a sub-30% hard-contact rating (29.6%) and a 3.64 SIERA on the season. He faces off with the White Sox, who rank 27th in wOBA against RHP (0.295), 24th in ISO (0.151) and have the 5th highest K-rate against RHP at 23.8%.
If you need more reason to consider Carrasco, in the last matchup with the White Sox on April 22nd, he went 8 innings while allowing only 3 hits, whiffing 8 and not allowing a single run. Since many people will opt to fade the price tag of Chris Archer, there really isn’t a better pivot on the board today than Carlos Carrasco.
Masahiro Tanaka ($7,900) vs BAL
If I were to tell you at the beginning of the season that Masahiro Tanaka would have a 6.55 ERA in mid-June, you would’ve called me crazy. Welp, here we are!
Tanaka has been miserable this season, allowing a 34% hard contact percentage, 2.32 HR/9 innings and striking out under 20% of batters per game. He recently got lit up by these same Orioles, going 5.2 innings while surrendering 9 hits and 7 earned runs while only striking out four batters.
While the Orioles still may be without Manny Machado, I expect them to have no problem knocking Tanaka around again today. Don’t be fooled by his name, he’s a pitcher to stack against this afternoon.
Kevin Gausman ($7,200) @ NYY
I really think that this game in general is game-stackable, as both pitchers have gas-can potential today.
Much like Tanaka, Gausman has gotten absolutely shelled this season to the tune of a 5.10 SIERA, 33.9% hard-contact percentage, 1.50 HR/9 innings and a disappointing 15.2% K-rate with an elevated 9% BB-rate.
In his two meetings against the Yankees this season, Gausman has lasted a TOTAL of 10 innings, allowing 6 earned runs, 8 walks and 16 hits. If you don’t stack the Yankees in all formats this afternoon then we’ve got a bone to pick. Stack away and watch the runs pile up.