With Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Archer all taking the mound in plus matchups, value is going to be a necessity on tonight’s 15-game MLB DFS slate.
Obviously value can be hard to find before lineups are confirmed, so for this value vault article, I will include a value pitcher and two value bats that I find based on their projected batting spots.
Here are my favorite value plays on tonight’s full MLB slate:
Aaron Nola ($8,100) vs CIN
While I strongly recommend paying up for pitcher in your cash games tonight, I’m never opposed to finding a nice value play in a tournament. Nola, who’s been hurt for a large part of the season, has posted a 3.97 SIERA (he holds a career 3.50 SIERA), a 20.8% K-rate (career 23.3%) and a career-best 11.4% swinging strike rate. He’s also only allowed a 25.4% hard-contact rate this season and holds an impressive career rate of only 28.4%.
The matchup with the Reds is certainly not a cake walk, but the fact that they are playing in Philadelphia gives Nola a major park upgrade while downgrading the Reds’ offense as opposed to playing in GABP. The Reds are a middle of the pack team in terms of wOBA (0.333) and ISO (0.177) against right-handed pitching.
Nola comes in as the -136 favorite and the Reds are only projected to score 3.7 runs (-0.4 since the line opened). The line movement is something to keep an eye on as well, seeing that if it keeps going down, it only increases Nola’s stock even more tonight.
Yasmani Grandal ($3,000)
While $3,000 is typically not your ideal value play, Grandal’s price has inexplicably dropped due to his matchup with Jake Arrieta tonight.
I expect many people to be scared away from the Dodgers tonight strictly due to Jake Arrieta being a household name, but he’s actually been regressing pretty badly this season. Since last season, his HR/9 has DOUBLED (up to 1.42), his WHIP has gone up from 1.08 to 1.40 and his hard contact percentage has risen 6.8%, up to 32.0%.
On the flip side, Grandal has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching this season, posting a 0.401 wOBA (career 0.348), a 0.225 ISO (career 0.205) and a hard-contact percentage of 41.0%. He’s also in the midst of a tear at the plate which has resulted in him being bumped up to the 3-hole in the lineup, and with Grandal being one of the streakiest players in the majors, it’d be smart to hop on while he’s hot.
Matt Adams ($2,700)
I’m going to assume that Adams will be a chalky play at first base today, but given how he’s played since he joined the Braves – there’s a good reason. On the season, Adams has posted a 0.375 wOBA and a 0.234 ISO against right-handed pitching while registering a 35.6% hard-contact percentage.
He matches up with Matt Cain tonight, who has been effective at home this season, but should run into some problems with Adams given his recent struggles with lefties. This season, he’s allowed a 0.374 wOBA and a 34.7% hard-contact rate (up 7.7% from last season) and just about one home run per 9 innings.
Adams will likely slide into the 5-hole in the lineup tonight and if you’re looking for a value play that still holds immense power upside that people look for at first base, he’s the perfect play for you.