Photo Credit: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports
What’s going on everyone. If you’ve listened to the Lineup Logic podcast already this morning, then you’re well aware of the future of Fantasy Forecast and … Forward Mile!
That’s right! Forward Mile and Fantasy Forecast will be merging and the co-founders and members of FM will be coming over to FF to help us increase the quality and consistency of our content to encompass all angles of every sport. We’re extremely excited for this transition and hope you all are as well, as we know it’s going to give our content a MAJOR boost!
Now, with the big news out of the way, we’ve got a nice 11-game MLB DFS slate to break down over on FanDuel – lets get to it.
Michael Pineda ($8,600)
With no clear-cut ace on the mound today, I’m looking squarely at Michael Pineda in both cash and tournament formats tonight. He’s been rather inconsistent for the majority of his career, but has started to right that ship through the first month and a half of the 2017 season.
Thus far, he’s posted a 2.59 SIERA, 30.3% K-rate compared to a beautiful 3.6% BB-rate, a 0.270 BABIP and has only allowed a 28.7% hard contact percentage. The statistic that catches my eyes the most is last years 14.1% SwStr% followed by this year’s 13.6% SwStr%. Batters are having an extremely hard time hitting him. If they can’t hit him, they can’t score.
His matchup tonight is also the definition of beautiful in the Kansas City Royals. The once World Series winners, the Royals have been brutal this season sporting a 0.292 wOBA and a 0.141 ISO against right-handed pitching to go along with a 21.1% K-rate and only a 7.2% BB-rate.
This team does not walk and they do not take pitches. They’re no longer the dangerous offense they once were and Michael Pineda should have no problem exploiting them tonight whatsoever in Kansas City (also a major park upgrade for Pineda).
Willson Contreras ($2,700)
Catcher is always my least favorite position to dive into because it’s always s thin, but I love the spot that Contreras finds himself in tonight.
He faces off with Scott Feldman of the Cincinnati Reds who hasn’t been terrible this season, sporting a mediocre 4.63 SIERA and a 30% hard contact percentage. The kicker is that he can’t strike batters out. In his 47.2 innings pitched this season, he’s only recorded 34 strikeouts – a dangerous inability against such a potent offense like the Cubs.
Over his first year and a quarter in the majors, Contreras has played respectably against right-handed pitching, producing a 0.341 wOBA and a 0.203 ISO with a 33.1% hard contact percentage.
The REAL draw to playing him tonight? Warm weather and 30 mph gusts of wind out to center field tonight. There were 7 home runs in Wrigley last night and I expect a similar amount tonight. Load up.
Anthony Rizzo ($3,900)
Much like the Contreras blurb, the Cubs are in a beautiful spot tonight with their pitching matchup and the weather situation. The added bonuses for Anthony Rizzo? He holds the platoon advantage and is still priced under $4k on FanDuel (ridiculous).
You can read the numbers on Scott Feldman above, as he should have some problems with this lineup tonight – especially the heart of the order. Rizzo holds a career 0.372 wOBA and a 0.228 ISO against right-handed pitching and is fresh off of a game in which he homered and also singled…off of the outfield wall…last night.
I expect him to be extremely chalky again tonight and I assure you that you don’t want to miss out.
Rougned Odor ($2,800)
Of all of the teams on tonight’s MLB DFS slate, the Rangers have the second highest IRT at 5.6 against Zach Eflin and the Phillies.
Eflin can’t strike out a batter to save his life with a K-rate of only 13% and holds a 34% hard contact percentage, a 4.7 xFIP and a 36% fly-ball percentage. What I’m getting at – stack the Rangers – primarily their left-handed hitters starting with Rougned Odor.
While he’s struggled out of the gates this season, Odor holds a career 0.327 wOBA and 0.216 ISO with a 31.2% hard contact percentage against right-handed pitching. He’s also recorded double-digit FanDuel points in 5 of his last 7 outings, showing that his early season struggles may be out of the way. For $2,800 tonight he should be a staple in your cash lineups and a pivotal part of a Rangers stack.
Joey Gallo ($3,200)
As I just recommended, stack the Rangers lefties tonight. I highlighted why, as Zach Eflin is virtually unable to strike batters out and has high hard-contact and fly-ball percentages. This tailors beautifully to Joey Gallo’s style of play as he’s a player who loves to swing…at anything.
With the strikeout possibility reduced, we can focus on his sheer power against right-handed pitching. Against such pitching, Gallo owns a career 0.340 wOBA and a 0.283 ISO to go along with a monstrous 45.9% hard contact percentage.
$3,200 is an absolute steal for the upside he possesses tonight and while his spot in the batting order is never ideal, this matchup is too nice to pass up.
Eric Sogard ($2,400)
This play is completely dependent on whether or not Sogard even plays, but if he does, he’s a beautiful value play.
Sogard has been on absolute fire through his first four games with the Brewers, posting a 0.600 batting average in 10 at bats and fresh off of a 4-4 game with a pair of doubles, an RBI and a run.
He matches up with Jhoulys Chacin tonight, who’s been rather impressive this season but still struggles against left-handed batters. He’s surrendered a 5.40 xFIP, 35.6% hard contact percentage and holds an abysmal 10.6% K-rate. These are far off of his numbers against righties, so I strongly advise you to take advantage of the opportunity that’s presented if Sogard suits up for the Crew tonight.
Mike Trout ($4,900)
There’s not a hotter hitter in baseball right now and guess what? His price DROPPED $500 overnight. Gotta love FanDuel. Over his last five games, Trout has posted 22.2, 27.7, 40.2, 21.7 and 18.2 FanDuel points. Again, his price went DOWN.
He’s hitting 0.344 on the season with 12 home runs, 27 RBIs and 27 runs with 8 stolen bases and comes in essentially matchup-proof. His opposition, Miguel Gonzalez, is not good. He carries a 5.2 xFIP and a 14% K-rate into a matchup with the best player in baseball. Lock and load people.