WNBA Breakdown – 5/17/17

I’ve decided to jump into covering WNBA DFS. With the NBA winding down and the slates getting much harder to play, I’ve found interest in WNBA. The past weekend of WNBA was very interesting with many similarities and differences from NBA DFS. This excites me and it came to my attention that there isn’t much information out there to research. So after talking with the rest of the FanForecast, I decided I would cover the WNBA slate’s.

My goal is to breakdown the slate by matchups, team information and trends. Then I will provide coverage for the Studs, Mid tier and Value plays. By doing this I hope I can help give the every day Dfs users information to build solid lineups.

WARNING: Both Saturday and Sunday there were some late scratches and news of people playing after lock time. This can be both an advantage or disadvantage depending on how you use it. Let’s use Brianna Stewart as an example. News came out Sunday that she wouldn’t play and after lock it was announced she would play. She ended up with 25.9 fps. There were obviously higher scorers, but in a gpp if some people risked it they could’ve gotten her for a low owned %. My point is with WNBA being so new, we need to understand and get used to what we’re doing. For cash lineups take less risks and for gpps take a shot every once in awhile and it may pay off. But, overall pay attention and be smart.

Slate Information:

WED May 17th Lock Time 10PM

2 games:
Wednesday- IND (0-1) @ PHO (0-1)
Thursday- MIN (1-0) @ NY (1-0)

Game Breakdown: IND @ PHO

This game should be interesting because IND put up 82 points in their first game, but allowed 87. I believe it’ll be another high scoring affair, it just depends which PHO team shows up. On paper PHO has all the pieces to be a championship caliber team, but they can’t seem to put it all together on the court. They were favored to win on Sunday and fell to DAL. Their star player Taurasi failed to show up shooting 1-11 and not doing much else while on the court. Griner had a decent game, but it’s clear she won’t be able to do it alone. Even with a big inside presence in Griner PHO still gave up 68 points. I believe IND has a more potent offense and will be able to score with ease. With that high powered offense, comes a bad defense so Griner seems like a must play to me. Also, I believe Taurasi bounces back, she’s been one of the best players in the WNBA for the last generation and there’s no way she doesn’t show up against a poor defensive team. I think this game will be high scoring and that you’ll want to have a lot of exposure to it.

Studs:

G Shenise Johnson, IND $7,000 – Johnson blew up in her first game going for 24p 8r and 4a. That was good for 44.6 fps, with this high powered offense I believe she will have a career year, but putting up 40 fps nightly will be a stretch. I think she will be very high owned tonight as people saw what she did in her first game. I’m looking for 30-35 fps from Johnson.
F Brittney Griner, PHO $6,300 – Griner was the most consistent player for the Mecury on Sunday. With her height and skills it will be very hard for her to have an off night. I think she will do even better when Taurasi’s shot starts falling because it will create some more space in the paint for her. Griner is a must play for me because IND gave up 87 points in their first game. In fast paced games there are more chances for fps. I’m looking for 25-35 fps from Griner.
Mid Tier:
G Diana Taurasi, PHO $5,600 – I think a lot of people will write Taurasi off tonight, which will make her a great play. She is an excellent scorer who shot horribly in her first game. The fever don’t play the best defense, so I believe this is a great spot for Taurasi to get back on track. I’m looking for 25-30 fps from Taurasi.

G Briann January, IND $5,500 –  January is another player that benefitted from this fast paced offense. She scored 23 points in the first game and shouldn’t have any problem scoring against PHO as they were ranked near the bottom of defending guards last year. I’m looking for 20-25 fps from January.

F Candice Dupree and Erlana Larkins, IND $4,500 – These twos are grouped together because they practically put up the same numbers on Sunday. Dupree played 35 minutes and Larkins played 33. They both put up just about 20 fps, which would be great if they could do that again tonight. The difference between them is Dupree is the savvy vet that can score where Larkins is more of a banger in the post and on the boards. Also, Dupree was traded away from PHO in the off season. If I had to pick one I would choose Dupree because she’s been in the league for 12 years, it’s a revenge game and her career avg of 12 points suggests she can score. I’m looking for 17-22 fps for both of them.

Value:

G Danielle Robinson, PHO $4,200 – Robinson started and played in 31 minutes in the first game. She had 8p, 3r and 9a. The only problem is she turned the ball over 6 times. PHO moved Taurasi off the ball hoping to get her more scoring opportunities, which is good news for Robinson. Her price is a little low and if she keeps the turnovers down she could crush value tonight. I’m looking for 20-25 fps from Robinson.

F Camille Little, PHO $3,800 – Little is another PHO player that seems a little under priced considering she started and played in 32 minutes. She scored 11p and had 4 steals on Sunday. It will be hard for her to contribute 4 steals every game, but with the minutes and price $3,800 I believe she’s in a good spot to hit value. I’m looking for 15- 20 fps from Little.

Game Breakdown: MIN @ NY

Thursday’s game should have a playoff feel to it as NY was the best team in the east last year and MIN was 1 point away from winning the WNBA championship. There are 3 really good players that will be playing in this game Maya Moore, Sylvia Fowles and Tina Charles. Moore is one of the best players in the league, Fowles is underrated and Charles is a walking double-double. NY is a solid basketball team all-around. They won their first game by 9 points. MIN comes into this year as a favorite to make it to the WNBA finals and they also won their first game by 9 points.

STUDS:

F Tina Charles, NY $8,300 – Charles is the most expensive player on the slate and I personally am not confident she can hit value. Even though she’s a walking double-double her first game worries me a little bit. At her price she only hit 22.4 fps, which is well under value. This game with MIN should be close so I anticipate she will play 30 something minutes, but I think her price is just too high and that she should be faded because there are other players that offer better value at a lower price. I’m expecting 25-30 fps from Charles.

F Sylvia Fowles, MIN $8,000 – Fowles price is based off her excellent performance in her first game where she recorded a double-double and 50 fps. While I don’t expect her to keep these numbers up for the whole year, I think she will be able to put up great numbers nightly because of teams focusing on her super star teammate Maya Moore. I believe she will be matching up with Charles which should be one of the better matchups this season. I’m looking for 35-40 fps from Fowles.

F Maya Moore, MIN $7,600 – Moore is one of the top players in the WNBA. In her first game she did a little bit of everything recording 11p, 7r, 6a, 3s which came out to 32.4 fps. Moore was able to sit back as Fowles did most of the scoring which was nice because she still had a pretty good night while only scoring 11 points. I expect more out of Moore tonight because it’ll be a big game and she should get a lot of minutes. I’m looking for 35-40 fps from Moore.
Mid Tier:

F Rebekkah Brunson, MIN $4,700 – Is another double-double threat on any given night. She shoots the ball well from inside and crashes the boards. In their first game she had 5p and 9r. She is a 14 year vet so her days of getting 25+ minutes a night are over, but she still is solid offensive player and plays good defense. I’m looking for 19-24 fps from Brunson.

G Sugar Rodgers, NY $4,500 – Rodgers is the primary ball handler in NY and the #2 option behind Charles. She only had 14 fps in her first game for NY, but I expect her to show up against MIN. They will need her to take care of the ball and to score to stay in the game. I expect Rodgers to be relatively low owned as there are some better value options out there. I’m looking for 17-22 fps from Rodgers.

G Lindsay Whalen, MIN $4,300 – Whalen is entering her 14th year and she can still get after it for MIN. She played 29 minutes scored 8 points and dished out 5 assists. That was good for 16.9 fps, her minutes probably won’t be this high as the season goes on because she’s a vet. But, don’t get it twisted she can still hoop and she will be over looked on the slate so her ownership will be low.  I’m looking for 16-20 fps from Whalen.

Value:

G Seimone Augustus, MIN $4,100 – Augustus is a great value play for MIN. She played in 31 minutes in her first game recording 7p, 4r, 5a for 18.3 fps. Her solid overall play puts her in a good position tonight. She won’t blow you away, but at the same time you can count on her to get you 15 fps. I’m looking for her to get 15-20 fps.

G Shavonte Zellous, NY $3,500 – Zellous played 23 minutes off NY’s bench in their 1st game and scored 10p and added 4 a for 15.2 fps. Zellous makes for a good option in a gpp as she will be low owned and allow for you to get higher salary players in your line. I’m looking for 13-18 fps from Zellous.

 

 

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