MLB Plays of the Day – 5/15/17

Tonight’s slate is disgusting. That’s actually an understatement. The highest priced pitcher is Brandon McCarthy for $8,700 which is extremely overpriced for a mediocre pitcher, so it seems like a night to pay up for premium bats and throw a dart with the pitcher.

Instead of my usual stack article, I’m going to give you my preferred play at every position, listed below:

Pitcher

Jesse Chavez ($7,200)

As I stated above, the pitching on tonight’s slate is absolutely brutal. I refuse to pay $8,700 for Brandon McCarthy, so I’ve got my sights set on Jesse Chavez in arguably the best matchup on the slate. He comes in as the -170 favorite at home against the Chicago White Sox who hold the second lowest IRT on the slate at 3.6.

Chavez has been disappointing this season, holding a rather average 20.1% strikeout rate with mediocre peripherals, but this play is more so based on the matchup. The White Sox have been bad. They hold a 23.3% K-rate, a 25.3% hard contact percentage and only a 6.3% walk rate against right-handed pitchers this season. In addition to their brutal play, they’re getting a major park downgrade heading out to Angels’ Stadium.

This slate is ugly, so like I said, throw a dart and load up on the bats – I just prefer to throw a Jesse Chavez dart over the other options.

Catcher

JT Realmuto ($2,700)

I know that Yasmani Grandal is likely going to be the chalky option at catcher and for good reason, I just want to go off of the beaten path a bit. If Realmuto continues to hit in the 1/2-hole tonight he finds himself in a great spot in an even better matchup.

On the season, Realmuto holds a 0.334 wOBA, a 0.139 ISO, a 15.5% K-rate and a 31.4% hard contact percentage as a right-handed batter, something his counterpart Joe Musgrove has struggled with this season. Musgrove has allowed a 0.381 wOBA, a 0.524 SLG and 2.18 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season. He comes in as the -113 favorite (I really think Vegas is drunk), which may scare some people off of the Marlins, but I view them as a great low-owned stack.

First Base

Freddie Freeman ($4,900)

I’ve already seen a lot of touts and sharks write up Freeman and I see no reason not to play him. He comes into tonight’s matchup with a ridiculous 0.488 wOBA, 0.392 ISO, 40.6% hard contact percentage and a 202 wRC+. Those are MVP-caliber numbers, too bad the Braves aren’t very good.

His numbers get even better versus right-handed pitching, posting a 0.493 wOBA, 0.400 ISO, 41.3% hard contact percentage and a 205 wRC+ ahead of tonight’s matchup with righty Mike Bolsinger.

Bolsinger is bad, this is a fact. He’s only pitched 5.2 innings this season, but last year against lefties heĀ surrendered a 0.339 wOBA, 0.465 SLG, a 32.3% hard contact percentage, 1.45 HR/9 and 3.12 BB/9. Don’t second guess this play, guys.

Second Base

Derek Dietrich ($2,500)

This play stems off of my JT Realmuto play as I’m looking to the Marlins for a low-owned stack option. The only issue surrounding Dietrich tonight is the uncertainty of his position in the batting order. If he leads off, I view him as a lock. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 14.36 FanDuel points and comes into tonight’s matchup against Joe Musgrove holding the platoon advantage.

Against lefties over his career, Musgrove has surrendered a 0.339 wOBA, a 0.465 SLG, 1.45 HR/9, a 32.3% hard contact percentage and 3.12 BB/9. I expect the ownership of all of the Marlins to be rather low tonight, so if you want to pivot away from the chalkier stacks, give them a long look.

Third Base

Jake Lamb ($3,500)

Jake Lamb against a righty, welcome to DFS. This is a thing, and you should take advantage of it. This season when holding the platoon advantage, Lamb has posted a 0.401 wOBA, a 0.247 ISO, a 32.4% hard contact percentage, a 141 wRC+ and a 11.7% walk rate.

His matchup tonight, Zack Wheeler, has loads of potential, but hasn’t necessarily been stellar this season. Against lefties in 2017 he’s allowed a 0.315 wOBA, a 0.426 SLG, 1.88 HR/9 and a brutal 41.7% hard contact percentage.

This game is also in Chase Field, one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. Lock and load the D-Backs lefties, starting with Jake Lamb.

Shortstop

Corey Seager ($3,600)

Much like Jake Lamb, Corey Seager against a righty is also a thing and I strongly recommend taking advantage of his reasonable price tag tonight against the regressing Matt Cain.

Over his career against right-handed pitching, Seager has posted a 0.406 wOBA, a 0.226 ISO and a 42.1% hard contact percentage (48.6% this season).

Against lefties this season, Cain has surrendered a 0.384 wOBA, a 0.431 SLG, a 0.360 BABIP, a 2,30 WHIP and a ridiculous 18.9% walk rate. He has absolutely no command and gives up a ton of walks and hits, so there will be more than enough to go around tonight. I except Seager to have an extremely nice night at the plate and also carry rather high ownership tonight.

Outfield

Mike Trout ($5,400)

There’s been a lot of expensive bats in this edition because of how brutal the pitching is. If there’s ONE bat I think you should absolutely lock into your lineups tonight, it’s Mike Trout. Over his last three games he’s average a shade over 30 FanDuel points per game. THIRTY! He’s gone 4-8 with 3 home runs, 5 RBIs and 2 stolen bases.

He gets the luxury of squaring off with Mike Pelfrey of the Chicago White Sox tonight who’s struggled mightily this season. He’s posted a 5.99 SIERA, a 1.42 WHIP and only 2.84 K/9. That equates to a 7.1% K-rate, HA! He’s also surrendering a 34.8% fly-ball rate, so if Mike Trout gets ahold of one tonight, which I think it will, it could go a long way.

Lock him in and don’t look back.


 

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