Value Vault: MLB Early-Only 5/6/17

With 15 games of baseball to be played this Saturday afternoon/night, we’ve got a three game early-only slate starting at 2:10 PM ET and a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 PM ET.

We will look to have articles for both the early-only slate and the main slate, kicked off by today’s Value Vault for the 3-game “Early Only” slate, with all four value plays today priced below $3,000 on FanDuel.

Derek Norris (FD – $2500 / DK – $2,800)

The best way to find value on FanDuel is to find where they’re lagging in their pricing updates. Queue in Derek Norris. Sean Kane has been all over him in his Lineup Logic podcast over the last week and for good reason as he’s been below $2.5k for the entire season. While Norris is never going to flirt with a .300 batting average, he’s strung together a quiet 5-game hit streak, averaging 11.72 FDP per game over that span. He hit his second home run of the season last night and has some potential to repeat that again tonight. His matchup, Marco Estrada, is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, allowing a 46.5% FB rate this season and a 47.6% FB rate over his career. While Norris isn’t likely to crack the top 5 of the batting order, he comes at an extreme discount considering his recent production and has some nice home run upside this afternoon.

Chris Young (FD – $2,600 / DK – $2,700)

The Red Sox are the premium stack to pay for in the early-only slate, but if you want some cheap exposure, look no further than Chris Young. Typically a platoon player against lefties, Young finds himself replacing the slumping Jackie Bradley Jr. this afternoon batting 7th against Nick Tepesch. In his last two games played (5/3 and 5/5), Young has gone 2-3 with two walks, three RBIs, a run and a double. So far in 2017, Young is hitting the baseball extremely well, boasting a 42.6% hard contact percentage and only a 16.2% K-rate while boasting a 14.7% BB-rate. His counterpart, Nick Tepesch, has yet to face a major league offense this season. In his lone start in 2016 with the Dodgers, Tepesch got obliterated, allowing 5 earned runs in 4 innings on 7 hits. Over his brief major league career he’s posted a dismal 14.0% K-rate, 1.37 WHIP, and a 0.290 BABIP. You can see why the Red Sox are the team to stack today, get yourself some cheap exposure with Chris Young.

**Fanduel Only**

These plays are considered value plays on FanDuel, but are too expensive to warrant a “value” tag on DraftKings.

Robbie Grossman (FD – $2,700 / DK – $3,600)

With Brian Dozier out of the lineup due to an ankle injury suffered last night, Twins’ OF Robbie Grossman will slide into the leadoff spot for under $3k. Rick Porcello is not necessarily a pitcher I actively look to pick on, but if there’s a player for this price tag leading off, I’m likely using them. Grossman has played well this season, posting a 0.348 wOBA (albeit with a disappointing 0.103 ISO) while posting a career-best 0.398 OBP and 36.5% hard contact percentage. Hitting behind Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano is also a nice boost to his value if he gets on base as the potential to score a run skyrockets. Again, this play is strictly based on opportunity and situation> I am not intending to target Rick Porcello, but on a 3-game slate, a $2,700 player leading off is too hard to pass up.

Evan Longoria (FD – $2,800 / DK – $4,600)

My second FanDuel-only value play is the Rays’ third baseman Evan Longoria…who FanDuel is failing to price correctly. In his two games since returning from injury, Longoria has seemed to turn around his slow start to the season by going 4-8 with two doubles, a run and a walk. Over his career against right-handed pitching, he’s posted a 0.346 wOBA, a 0.210 ISO with a 34.7% hard contact percentage. A player of Longoria’s caliber, regardless of the fact that he’s not the player he once was, should not be priced this low. I don’t expect his price to remain below $3k for long, so I strongly recommend taking advantage while you still can.


 

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