Stacks of the Day – 5/2/17

The first month of baseball is officially in the books and that means that current trends this season will start to carry a bit more weight. We can start looking more at current data and rely a bit less on last year’s as players’ tendencies and strengths/weaknesses are now apparent. With that being said, we obviously still want to put weight on career stats and trends as well.

For tonight, we’ve got a full 15-game MLB slate with a whole lot of depth at every single position. With this being the case, stacking becomes much more interesting because lineup differentiation should come with ease tonight. Below are my three favorite team stacks of the night with my breakdown of each.

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Premium Stack 

New York Yankees – (IRT – 5.4)

When any team is matched up with Mat Latos, you can always look to them as a viable stack on the slate. When that said team is the young power-hitting New York Yankees with the short porch in right field of Yankee Stadium? You can absolutely LOCK that stack in all formats.

Mat Latos has been more impressive than expected this season, posting a 0.82 HR/9 rate, 0.235 BABIP, and a 31.4% HC rate, but I sense a lot of regression coming and Yankee Stadium is the perfect place for the ever-awaited implosion.

While those numbers bode well for Latos, he doesn’t miss many bats, producing a measly 4.09 K/9 and only a 7.3% SwStr%. What’s even better? He’s allowing a career-worst 45.7% fly-ball rate this season, even though many have failed to leave the yard. In addition, Mat Latos also allows a whole lot of stolen bases and this Yankees’ lineup has some wheels.

My favorite players to stack from the Yankees’ lineup come from the left side of the plate due to the short porch in right, but I also love Matt Holliday and Aaron Judge from a raw power perspective regardless of them not holding the platoon advantage. My ideal Yankees’ stack would be a 1-3-4, with their splits against RHP listed below.

  • Brett Gardner (LHB) – 0.333 wOBA // 0.115 ISO // 13.2% BB% // + SB upside
  • *Matt Holliday (RHB) – 0.331 wOBA // 0.180 ISO // 35.5% HC
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (LHB) – 0.326 wOBA // 0.127 ISO // 12.6% BB% // +SB upside

*BvP special – Holliday is 11-29 (0.379 avg) over 32 career PAs against Latos

While there is obviously an absence for power in this stack, you can play upon Latos’ weaknesses in giving up stolen bases and a lot of contact. All three players demonstrate above average plate discipline, especially Gardner and Ellsbury, and Holliday provides HR upside.

In addition to those three, I also really live Chase Headley (0.333 wOBA, 0.168 ISO, 31.4% HC vs RHP) and Aaron Judge (0.355 wOBA, 0.298 ISO, 48.8% HC vs RHP) to round off a full Yankees’ stack tonight.

Secondary Stack

St. Louis Cardinals – (IRT – 4.4)

The stack that I will likely be deploying the most of tonight is the St. Louis Cardinals, who’s bats have been slowly heating up and they draw a dream matchup tonight with Wily Peralta. Over 23 starts last season, Peralta posted a 4.86 ERA, 4.51 SIERA and only a 16.8% K-rate.

Those numbers are not terrible, but they aren’t good. Even better for the Cards? Those numbers have worsened this season. Through 5 starts in 2017, Peralta has posted a 5.19 ERA, 4.79 SIERA and an alarming 37.0% HC rate.

St. Louis’ current roster absolutely crushes Peralta to the tune of a 0.314/0.369/0.459 slash line, putting just about any Cardinal in play in this matchup, but there are some specific ones I prefer.

The Cardinals’ 1-4 are all extremely dangerous hitters in the right matchup, but I will likely be looking to deploy their 2-3-4 hitters, as all have extremely enticing wOBAs and ISOs against right-handed pitching, listed below:

  • Aledmys Diaz (RHB) – 0.368 wOBA // 0.230 ISO // 31.5% HC // 12.3% K%
  • *Matt Carpenter (LHB) – 0.383 wOBA // 0.248 ISO // 45.6% HC // 15.5% BB%
  • Jedd Gyorko (RHB) – 0.368 wOBA // 0.303 ISO // 35.4% HC

BvP Special – Carpenter is 20-43 (0.465 avg) with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 12 R in 48 PAs against Peralta

As you can see, every one of their 2-3-4 hitters absolutely smash right-handed pitching with wOBAs over 0.360 and ISOs over 0.230 (Gyorko’s over 0.300 – LOCK?!).

In addition to the meat of their order, I’m a fan of Dexter Fowler (0.355 wOBA vs RHP) in the leadoff spot and I also don’t mind Randal Grichuk (0.225 ISO vs RHP // 39.0% HC) as a contrarian one-off from the Cardinals lineup.

Bonus Stack 

Cincinnati Reds – (IRT – 4.6)

As I’ve said in previous stack articles, the Reds are typically a stack that goes extremely under-owned but in the right matchup, can make you a lot of money.

Tonight they draw the struggling rookie Tyler Glasnow of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s struggled mightily to find the strike zone and his numbers have reflected that as he’s posted a 7.98 ERA, 5.17 SIERA and a 15.5% BB% through his first four starts this season. He’s done a nice job of limiting hard contact, allowing only a 13.5% HC rate this season, but obviously there are other ways to get to him as he’s already surrendered 15 stolen bases over his first 8 career starts.

With his control issues and struggles with keeping runners on in mind, combined with the park factor of Great American Ballpark, we can find a ton of value in the Reds’ lineup. My ideal stack would be that the 1-3-4 of their order. Their splits against RHP are below:

  • Billy Hamilton (RHB) – 0.299 wOBA // 0.072 ISO // +++ SB upside
  • Joey Votto (LHB) – 0.420 wOBA // 0.256 ISO // 40.6% HC // 16.9% BB%
  • Adam Duvall (RHB) – 0.330 wOBA // 0.256 ISO // 38.2% HC

Obviously Billy Hamilton’s wOBA and ISO leave a ton to be desired, but after stealing 3 bases last night, I see no reason why he slows down tonight and his chances to get on base are heightened with Glasnow’s control issues.

Votto and Duvall on the other hand absolutely smash righties. In addition to those three, I also like Scott Schebler (0.351 wOBA // 0.214 ISO // 34.6% HC vs RHP) to round out a viable four man stack in all formats.

While I expect this stack to go rather under-owned, I would advise you not to overlook them tonight as they have the GPP-takedown potential that everyone is looking for on a massive slate.

Other Viable Stacks
  • Boston Red Sox (IRT – 5.3) – They’ll rival the Yankees as the chalkiest stack on the slate
  • New York Mets (IRT – 4.3)

Thank you for reading my Stacks of the Day article! If you find this information useful in your lineup building process or just want to show off a winning lineup, tweet at us @FanForecast and we’ll be sure to interact and retweet you!

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