Hello all. Most of you know me from my twitter account @DFSClutchBoy . I have been playing DFS since spring of 2015 and have had mild success in MLB DFS since them. My MLB DFS reputation was best showcased when I cashed 17 straight slates during the summer of last year all while posting my lineups for free publicly. Also on the early slate 5 days ago (4/19) I was able to take down a few GPP’s for myself and subscribers. That’s enough about me lets talk about pitching on today’s slate. Who should you play in cash, in GPP and who should you throw in the dumpster.
Zack Greinke (FD – $10,000) – Zack Greinke is the definition of a scary high tier priced play; however, this match up at home with the San Diego Padres is simply to good to ignore. In just his last outing, he faced SDP in Petco and posted a line of 8 IP with 5 hits, 1 BB, 1 ER, for 43 FDP. To top it off, Greinke has only given up 22 hits on 127 at-bats against SDP (.221). I am hoping that the negative ballpark shift lowers his ownership because I want exposure to Greinke tonight. This is an above-average match up and I believe Zack Greinke is VIABLE IN ALL FORMATS.
Chris Archer (FD – $9,500) – Chris Archer has been good to start the season and the Rays bats are starting to heat up. The Orioles hit RHP pretty well. My initial thought on Archer is that his price is rather high and I was trying to find numbers to support the play. What I found was that Chris (boom or bust) Davis has 3HR and 5XBH against Archer. I don’t think his price matches his match up today and will be picking on other high tier options for tonight’s slate. I will have LITTLE IF ANY ARCHER EXPOSURE.
Jason Vargas (FD – $8,500) – Simply put, Jason Vargas is the hottest pitcher on the slate today and only the third most expensive. He WILL be extremely high owned. The White Sox batting average over the last 7 days is the third lowest in the MLB (.188). Lets keep in mind that they had to face Kluber and Carrasco this past weekend. This match up is much tougher than it looks and will be Vargas’s toughest this season. The White Sox hit very well against lefties and have the numbers to back it up. I’m not saying to avoid Vargas in all formats, but I like Greinke as a safer option with a much better option tonight. I will have SOME VARGAS EXPOSURE. He is a DECENT CASH GAME OPTION.
Amir Garrett (FD -$7,700) – This 24 year old southpaw has been absolutely brilliant to start the year. He has yet to go less than 6 innings and even struck out 12 O’s in his last outing. The Brewers are a great match up STRIKEOUT wise for Garrett. They strikeout 30% of the time against LHP and Garrett should have no problem racking them up against Milwaukee tonight. The two problems that I have with deploying Garrett tonight in fanduel is that A) his price seems extremely high, and B) Baltimore and St. Louis (2 of his 3 previous matches, are teams that are bottom 5 in the league against hitting LHP. The other match up was with Pittsburgh who is 9th to last against LHP. While I understand that the Brewers strikeout a ton against LHP and Garrett should have no problem racking them up tonight, I fear that the Brewers will be able to pound him when they are able to make contact. People seem to ignore the extremely high wRC+ that Milwaukee possesses against LHP. For $6,700 on DK, Garrett is certainly in play as an SP2, but for $7,700 on FD he is a GPP ONLY.
Phil Hughes (FD $6,100) – First off, by no means is Phil Hughes a good pitcher. He has struggled throughout his career and hasn’t really had a “dominant” outing yet this year. However, on a slate where the Nationals are playing against a gas can in Coors, and other high priced bats are in tremendous spots, it may be important to ride the value train from the pitching position. The Rangers have been ICE cold to start the season, with the worst BA in the MLB (.207) and the fifth worst wOBA (.290). Hughes has also had some minor success against the Rangers. With any pitcher this low price comes serious risk. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher and we all know Mazara, Lucroy, Odor and even Choo do best. This is also a negative park shift. Hughes is an extremely risky play, but one I may have some exposure to and just pray he gets through 6 and the twins bats come through. Hughes is a VIABLE GPP OPTION.
Side note: Feedback is important to me on these articles as I am looking to get more active with them and release more. Please feel free to tweet me or shoot me a mesage ( @DFSClutchBoy) with any feedback or ideas for future articles. Best of luck tonight and I will be active on twitter throughout the day / night to answer any further questions you have. LETS CASH