Value Vault: NBA 4/20/17

What’s up guys, I’ll be filling in for Cody’s value plays for the NBA slate tonight and boy am I excited for these games! My Milwaukee Bucks will host the Raptors in game 3 of a 1-1 series, the Grizzlies and Spurs square off in Memphis and the Cavaliers travel to Indianapolis for a showdown with the Pacers in Bankers’ Life Fieldhouse.The NBA playoffs are a whole different level of fun when it comes to DFS, but building rosters and differentiating them can be difficult on such short slates, which is why we’re here to help! Here are my four value plays for today’s slate – sorted from most expensive to least expensive.

Serge Ibaka ($5,800)

The most important part of finding value is to pinpoint where Fanduel has mis-priced their players and tonight that’s Serge Ibaka. I expect him to be chalky due to his stellar performance thus far. Through his first two playoff games with Toronto, he’s averaged 17.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3 assists and 2.5 blocks over 36 minutes per game. In addition to his enhanced contributions, his usage rate has risen from 20.9% in the regular season to 22.1% in the first two playoff games. The Bucks’ achilles heel is big men with a knack for rebounding, so I see no reason not to go back to the well here – if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Zach Randolph ($5,400)

There are really three nice values at the PF position, Ibaka (above), Thaddeus Young, and Zach Randolph. Randolph had a disappointing opener of the playoffs in which he recorded only 6 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assist over 26 minutes of action and definitely showed signs of regression and old age. Then game 2 happened and the tables were turned. He played 36 minutes while posting an 18-point 10-rebound double-double and added an assist and 3 steals. The Spurs are a pesky defensive team across the board so it’s hard to say that he has a plus matchup, but with his experience and consistency, he should be in line for a hefty amount of minutes and production tonight as well to help take some weight off of Marc Gasol and Mike Conley’s shoulders.

Lance Stephenson ($5,000)

Ridiculous shot attempts, a reckless attitude and savage swagger, that is playoff Lance Stephenson. As painful as it can be to watch (or coach), he makes for a great value play. He’s essentially pushing Monta Ellis out of the rotation and has played 27 and 26 minutes through the Pacers’ first two playoff games respectively. Through those games, he’s averaged 14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1 steal per contest. Obviously these are  not eye-popping numbers but for a $5k shooting guard on a three game slate? We’ll take it. The Pacers play at home tonight and the spread of the game is only 2, so I expect them to put on a show for the home crowd.

Tony Snell ($3,700)

Did you actually think that I’d write an article on the NBA Playoffs and NOT include a Buck?! If you’re really looking to dip down in the value vault, Tony Snell would be my suggestion. He’s been shooting out of his mind through the first two games in the Bucks’ series with the Raptors while receiving 24 minutes in game 1 and 31 in game two. He’s averaged 12.5 points, 3 rebounds and 1.5 assists in that playing time. Obviously we’d love to see a jump in the peripheral stats (I would still expect a couple steals incoming), but he has also not committed a turnover yet. He’s never going to be the go-to option on offense, but Jason Kidd hasn’t elected to play Michael Beasley yet this series and Mirza Teletovic is not threat to Snell’s minutes. For $3,700, he’s locked into 25-30+ minutes and has been shooting the lights out from downtown. You could do much worse with a punt play.


 

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