Value Vault: NBA 4/18/17

Tonight we have MIL/TOR, CHI/ BOS and UTA/LAC in action for this 3 game slate. As we all know anything can happen in the playoffs and this is where us fans see a lot of crazy things. But, for the most part this is the most stable time of year for DFS players. Minutes are tighter for the starters, usage numbers are at a high because each team wants the ball in their best players hands and matchups are for the most part the same because it’s a 7 game series.

Finding value in the playoffs is pretty much the same because it’s still based on pricing and matchups. The only difference to me is there are less options for value so you want to make sure you choose the right player. If you do punt it could be very risky especially on a 3-game slate where players are more chalky. I have 3 value plays for today so let’s get to it!

Derrick Favors $5,200 – Let me state the obvious. Favors is in a great spot tonight because he will start at C for the Jazz because Rudy Gobert has been ruled out. He doesn’t exactly have the best matchup because of how athletic DeAndre Jordan is, but I think he has a better matchup than he would if he was on Blake Griffin the whole game. DJ can’t shoot from the outside forcing Favors to be in the paint the whole game, which helps him out. Also, Gobert was hurt very early in the game so Favors got a lot of run. So I got to see him play the whole game and honestly he looked like his old self. He played 32 minutes and scored 25.2 fps. At $5,200 he only needs 26 fps to hit value and with a minutes bump Favors is in a good spot.

Joe Johnson $4,600 – Let me be clear Johnson isn’t listed here because I watched the Sports Center highlights. I watched the whole UTA/LAC game and the Clippers didn’t have an answer for Johnson. He’s a savvy vet who does a lot of things good, but not great. But, like I said in the intro value in the playoffs is all about the series long matchup and in this spot Johnson has a great matchup. With Gobert out Johnson gives them a little more beef on defense to switch on to Griffin. He usually splits time with Ingles ( Game 1 Johnson played 31 to Ingles’ 33), but in all honesty if he keeps playing like he did in Game 1 I wouldn’t be surprised if he keeps getting more minutes. Offensively Johnson creates a problem for the Clippers because Mbah a Moute isn’t big enough to guard him and Griffin is obviously athletic enough, but that puts the Clippers in a bad spot defensively.  He scored 36 fps, 21 pts, 3 rebs, 3 assts, 1 block and 3 steals. He literally was all over the place and for $4,600 he only needs 23 fps to hit value. I would lock him in and run….

PJ Tucker $3,700 – Tucker was coming into game 1 battling an illness and still played 29 minutes. He only scored 13.3 fps, but you could tell he was a little off. I like him tonight because of reports are he’s feeling better and his minutes should be over 30. As a starting SF and a lot of minutes he’s in a great position to get a lot of opportunities. At his price of $3,700 he only needs 18.5 fps to hit value. Tucker is an excellent value play for today!

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