Value Vault: NBA 4/4/17

Today we have a enormous 11 game slate! With such a huge slate late in the season it’s important to find games that have high o/u and to target teams that are fighting for playoff seeding or to get into the playoffs. Teams that have something to play for tomorrow Hornets, Wizards, Cavs, Pacers, Raptors, Bucks, Thunder, Bulls, Grizz and Blazers are all teams in that category. But, don’t rule out the teams that aren’t in the playoffs because this time of year injuries and playing players who don’t normally get a lot of time are common so gm’s can evaluate the current state of their roster. With that being said I’m going to have a lot of Value plays because there’s a lot of players in good spots!

Point Guards


Jamal Murray $3,700 – Murray is only in play if Jameer Nelson is held out again. If he indeed does start I like Murray because of his matchup. Jrue Holiday isn’t a very good defender and Denver’s pace should allow Murray to get some easy buckets and assists. At $3,700 Murray only  needs 18.5 fps to hit value. In his last two starts at the same price he’s hit 18.3 and 17.6 in 28.5 minutes. While he didn’t hit value he makes for a nice value play and allows for some salary relief.

Matthew Dellavedova $3,500 –  Delly is only in play if he starts. In the last two games he’s started at the same price he’s scored 24 and 19.1 fps. In those games he’s played 34.5 minutes. Westbrook isn’t the best defender so if Delly can knock a couple 3’s down and get his rebounds and assists he should be able to hit value of 17.5 fps.

Ron Baker and Chasson Randle $3,500 – This is more of a gpp play, but with Derrick Rose out the rest of the year with yet another knee injury the Knicks have a bunch of minutes available at PG. Baker plays majority of the minutes, but Randle is more productive. They will get Rondo defense tomorrow which let’s be honest isn’t what it used to be so one of them might be worth a shot. As far as Randle goes he played 22 mins last game and scored 15.9 fps. So his minutes could be on the up as the Knicks are in full on tank mode.

Shooting Guards


Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $4,200 – This is about as high as I’m willing go to pay up for TLC. But, he has an excellent matchup with the Nets tomorrow. This game should be very fast paced with no defense being played. So it’s essentially a dfs players dream game. With Robert Covington out for the year TLC has stepped into his place nicely playing over 32 minutes in his last 4 games and scoring more than 24.8 fps in each of those contests. Needing 21 fps to hit value I think TLC is an excellent play tonight because of his matchup and he really can fill up the stat sheet.

Jordan Crawford $3,700 – As I wrote the other night, Crawford is an excellent scorer for the Pelicans off the bench. He gets about mid 20 minutes and that should carry on tomorrow with a great matchup against the Nuggets. This game will be a pace up opportunity for the Pelicans where Crawford should thrive. Expect him to extend his streak of scoring 10 pts or above to 9 games. Crawford only needs 18.5 fps to hit value.

Small Forwards


Justin Anderson $4,000 – Anderson is another play who has benefitted from Covington being out. He’s been getting about 25 minutes a night and has an excellent matchup with the Nets. He should be able to take advantage of the Nets poor defense. He needs 20 fps to hit value.

Paul Zipser $3,700 – Zipser is an interesting play tomorrow because he’ll see around 25 minutes of play against a weak defensive Knicks team. He can score when given the chance and only needs 18.5 fps to hit value. He should be really low owned as well.

Power Forwards


Serge Ibaka $5,600 – Ibaka is in a great spot tonight as he gets a favorable matchup with Thad Young. He tore him up earlier in the week going for 35.4 fps and then followed that up with a huge 45.2 fps game against the 76ers. Serge has really helped take the load off Derozan and should continue this again tonight. He needs 28 fps to hit value.

Al-Farouq Aminu $4,800 – With Nurkic out for the Blazers Aminu has seen increased minutes. I like him tonight because without Favors the Jazz have been getting beat up at power forward, even with Gobert down low. Aminu is a solid scorer and rebounder. His price does worry me a little, but the blazers are fighting to get in the playoffs so Aminu should show up big.

Center


Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 – Val is another player who has stepped to help take the load off Derozan. He’s hit value his last 4 games, the low 29.8 and the high of 41.9 fps. He gets a nice matchup with Myles Turner tonight who doesn’t offer much of a defensive presence. I fully expect Val to hit value of 27.5 fps in a big game for him.

Shawn Long $4,000 – Long is another player taking advantage of injuries. He’s been playing  about 20 minutes a night and gets Brook Lopez defense tonight. At $4,000 he needs 20 fps to hit value and that looks just about right for him. SO if you’re looking for a value play center for some salary relief Long could be your guy.

 

 

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