Value Vault: PF Position Breakdown – 3/26

Going over today’s slate and I love all the options available at PF. So, I decided to do a position breakdown where I will talk about  studs, mid tier and value plays. Here I will cover their matchup, cash/gpp option and why I like/dislike them.

STUD
Blake Griffin $8,800 – Griffin is our most expensive option at PF on the slate and he has a nice matchup with the Kings today. Let me be clear while Griffin is the stud I also believe he will be today’s bust. The Clipper’s are jockeying for playoff position so they haven’t been resting players, so Griffin will see his minutes. But, at $8,800 he needs 44 fps to hit value. I honestly don’t see that happening because the Kings are a poor team. The spread for this game Is currently sitting at 14 points favoring the Clippers. It’ll most likely be a blowout where Griffin barely sees the 4th qtr and gets 35 fps. I would not roster him.

Mid Tier
Dario Saric $7,600 – I like Saric as the most safe cash play today at PF. With his $7,600 price tag he only needs 38 fps. His last game he posted a nice 45 fps and played 34 mins against CHI. I think his matchup tonight with IND poses a lot of similarities and I like for him to hit value. Saric has a unique skill set for a big man. He’s a crafty scorer and isn’t afraid to rebound the ball. Add him to one of the most depleted front courts in the NBA right now and you realize he makes for a great Mid Tier play.

Willie Cauley-Stein $6,100 – WCS is the King who has benefited the most from the Demarcus Cousins trade. He’s been getting a solid 30 minutes a night depending on how close the games are and he’s making the most of it. WCS is very athletic and his defense can rack you up some points in a hurry. He does kind of scare me tomorrow because it seems like he’s starting to wear down based on his recent performances, which makes his $6,100 price tag a little high. With other value at PF on the slate you don’t need to reach for him. I don’t mind his matchup against the Clippers, I think the game will be very fast paced where WCS could grab quite a few rebounds and score some easy buckets.

James Johnson $6,100 –  AKA the “Swish Army Knife”. Johnson can do it all, that’s what makes him worth it as a cash game play. At a modest $6,100 Johnson could easily crush value today because he can score, rebound and pass. BOS doesn’t have a great front court and all the attention will be on Whiteside. This is when Johnson thrives most. He only needs 30.5 fps to hit value and I think this game stays relatively close. My bet Johnson easily pushes 6x.

Enes Kanter $6,000 – Kanter makes for an interesting gpp option, but nothing more than that. He plays about 20 minutes a game and that’s about it. He’s very productive while on the court, which is why I’m confused Billy Donavan doesn’t play him more. He has a plus matchup that will be very fast paced.

Value
Richaun Holmes $5,600 – This is another possible gpp play based on if Okafor is playing. Holmes has burned some people the last couple nights with bad performances which should keep his ownership down. But, if Holmes can get it going he will drop 51 fps like he did 3 games ago making worth a shot in a gpp. IND front court is nothing special and Holmes could do some damage. It just depends if Okafor plays.

Skal Labissiere $4,700 – This is a cash/gpp combo play because there is some risk here, but Skal is another player that has benefitted from the Cousins trade. He’s been getting about 25 minutes a night and he is just like WCS, but even more raw. Last game out he nearly had a triple-double against GS, but his consistency isn’t there yet. I like Skal to get his minutes largely due to a blowout, here he will crush value. But, the reason there’s a risk is because if SAC keeps it close then I don’t think he sees as much court time.

Nikola Mirotic $4,600 – I like Mirotic today as a cash game play against MIL. The Bucks have been playing great ball lately, but their front court is having some issues since Parker went down. Mirotic poses some issues for many teams because he can really shoot it. I think he has a great matchup tonight and should take advantage of whoever is guarding him. At $4,600 he needs only 23 fps to hit value.

Bobby Portis $4,300 – I honestly don’t mind Portis today at all for cash games. To me he’s a safer option than Mirotic because you know what you’re going to get from him. He can score from the inside and rebound the ball. It just depends on his minutes, but the good news is he’s played in 20 or more minutes in 12/14 games. He has a good matchup where he should rack up some rebounds and easy buckets. His $4,300 makes him intriguing because he only needs 21.5 fps to hit value.

VERY RISKY GPP PLAYS

Thad Young $4,400 – He’s a starting PF and he’s priced so low…. one of these games he’s going to explode. He has a juicy matchup (76ers frontcourt) and he gets close to 30 minutes a night.

Amir Johnson $3,800 – BOS plays Johnson more with teams that have big centers and today they get MIA. At almost min price Johnson still gets about mid 20 minutes and can still hit 30 fps like he did last game against PHO (Big front court). He might be worth a shot tomorrow against Whiteside and only needs 19 fps to hit value.

Marreese Speights $3,500 – Speights had a huge last game scoring 29 fps. The reason he’s a strict gpp play is if his shot isn’t falling there’s no way he hits value. The Clippers should blow the Kings out and Speights should get some extra run. He makes for interesting pick on today’s slate.

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