Fanduel NBA Breakdown – 1/23

Happy Monday everybody! We’re finally back with a normal NBA slate on Fanduel tonight, but before I dive into the slate, I wanted to review my picks/lineup in the previous article I wrote on Saturday.

Below is the lineup that I ended up rolling out on Saturday night, with the vast majority of the picks coming straight from my write-up.

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I ended up pivoting off of Nikola Jokic off of a sheer gut play that I saw in LaMarcus Aldridge. I pictured his usage and rebounding numbers rising a bit with the absence of Pau Gasol, and in a game that was expected to be close with the Cavs, I figured he’d get his minutes – and it paid off as I got him at 8.6% ownership.

The other huge play that I pivoted to was Sam Dekker. I had Joe Ingles locked in my SF2 spot all day until about 15 minutes before lock when I saw that Dekker was starting, given that he’s a more capable offensive player and would be guarded by sloth-like Zach Randolph. He absolutely exploded for his first career 30-point performance and went for over 10x value. I was able to snag him at 5.4% which is a goldmine when you’re playing GPPs.

Obviously my two stud picks (Kawhi Leonard and DeMarcus Cousins) anchored my lineup with incredible games to supplement for Kemba’s disappointment, and I was the beneficiary of quite a nice night cashing in all formats, and I’ll hope to carry that over into tonight!

Here are my preferred plays for tonight’s NBA slate:

Point Guard

John Wall ($9,700)

Any time Wall is under 10k, lock him in and don’t look back. He’s scored over 40 Fanduel points in all but two of his last 14 games and over has been on a ridiculous tear over his last 10 games. Over that stretch, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 10.8 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game over 36.6 minutes. Adding in his 0.4 blocks per game and 3.5 turnovers per game, that equates to an average of 45.02 Fanduel points per game. Wall gets to take on the Charlotte Hornets tonight, who are usually a rather mediocre matchup, but have really struggled against the point guard position lately. Over their last 10 games, the Hornets have surrendered an average of 47.3 FDP per game to point guards, 3.4 points above their season average. The game carries a nice 213.5 o/u and a tight spread of 4.5 in favor of CHA, so we could see a nail-biter, and a huge outing from Wall.

Jeff Teague ($7,500)

I’m currently stuck between Teague and Goran Dragic, but I’m leaning Teague for a couple of reasons. The first being that the MIA / GSW game will likely be a bloodbath, and it’ll happen early. The Warriors will be able to key in on Dragic as the main offensive weapon, just like they did last meeting where he only posted 24.4 FDP. Teague, on the other hand, is in quite a nice spot tonight. His play has been nothing short of outstanding this season, averaging 15.7 points, 8 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.6 steals over 32.2 minutes per game. He’s raised the assist average to 10.1 over his last ten games and has shot the ball at a 59% clip in the month of January. His matchup tonight is the New York Knicks, and everyone knows how their season has been going. The Knicks have surrendered 47.3 Fanduel points per game to point guards over their last 5 games. In his two games against the Knicks this season, Teague has dazzled for averages of 18 points, 10 assists, and 5.5 rebounds over 34 minutes per game. If you go the route of mid-tier point guards tonight, there isn’t a much better option than Jeff Teague.

Other preferred point guards: Goran Dragic ($7,100), George Hill ($6,100), Raymond Felton ($4,900)

Shooting Guard

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800)

I highly recommend locking either Harden or Giannis into your lineup tonight, as I will be electing to take the savings with the Greek Freak. In their last meeting against the Rockets, Giannis produced 32 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 blocks and a steal for 58.2 Fanduel points. He’s a lock for minutes in the high-30s on a nightly basis and will be more than determined to get the Bucks out of their recent 5-game rut. Again, this is a huge pace-up game for Giannis, as the Rockets average 101.3 possessions per game (4th in the league) and also struggle mightily at defending the shooting guard position (37.7 FDP per game, 3rd worst in NBA). Tonight’s game carries the highest o/u on the slate at 224.5, so there should be ample amount of possessions for Giannis to go to work. Don’t be surprised if he goes for one of his 60+ FDP performances.

Dejounte Murray ($3,800)

Don’t overthink this one, because I can guarantee you that Murray will be locked into at least 60% of lineups in cash games. He’s started the Spurs’ last two games in the absence of Tony Parker and has averaged 19 points, 4 assists and 2 rebounds over 28 minutes per game. He’s currently expected to draw his third consecutive start against the worst defense in the NBA, the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets’ backcourt is allowing 52.2 Fanduel points per game to opposing point guards (worst in the league). This game could very easily get out of hand quickly, but Murray seems to be a rather blowout-proof players, as Popovich doesn’t really have another option to throw in during garbage time with Patty Mills likely the garbage time shooting guard in the absence of Manu Ginobli. Murray’s price is still under 4k, making 5x value a virtual lock tonight, so get him in your lineups and don’t take him out.

Other preferred shooting guards: James Harden ($11,900), Dion Waiters ($5,500), Sean Kilpatrick ($4,100)

Small Forward

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,400)

Tonight I have absolutely no interest in paying up for the stud SFs, so I am all over the value at the position, starting with MKG. With injuries to various wing players on the Hornets over the last month, MKG has really been able to carve out a significant role in the offense, and an even bigger role on defense. MKG is fresh off of arguably his best game of the season in which he posted 17 points, 14 rebounds, 2 blocks and an assist in 35 minutes of action to total out to 37.3 Fanduel points. He’s seen at least 30 minutes of playing time in 7 consecutive games and with Jeremy Lamb ruled out for tonight, expect that total to run up to 8. For $5,400, MKG needs 26 Fanduel points to reach 5x value, something he should be able to do relatively easily with his ability to contribute in the peripheral stat categories.

Joe Ingles ($3,900)

This punt play really doesn’t warrant a ton of explanation because Fanduel is just so bad at their pricing. He’s topped 20 FDP in three consecutive games in the absence of Rodney Hood and they still haven’t raised his price above $4,000. Gordon Hayward will likely have to deal with the Andre Roberson treatment tonight, relaying the offensive burden on the rest of the team a little more than usual. Ingles is also extremely capable of contributing across the stat sheet, as he’s averaged 5 assists, 3 rebounds and 2.7 steals over his last 3 games. If you add those averages up in terms of FD points, that alone is 16.5 Fanduel points, already 4.2x his value. If that doesn’t scream lock than I don’t really know what else to tell you at this point.

Other preferred small forwards: LeBron James ($10,600), Paul George ($7,000), Marcus Morris ($5,400)

Power Forward

Kevin Love ($7,500)

Power forward is the position I’m having the most trouble with, and I have a feeling my PF1 (Kevin Love) is going to be extremely contrarian. He’s been awful on offense lately, shooting around 30% over his last 5 games, but his points, rebounds, and usage rate are all up from last year as he’s become a massive part of this Cavalier offense. He returned from a back ailment last game and posted 13 points and 11 rebounds over 36 minutes against the Spurs. He only shot 4-15 from the floor (3-11 from behind the arc…yikes), and the Spurs are known to have an extremely stout defense. What’s extremely encouraging is that Love, even on a terrible night shooting wise, was able to record yet another double double and still squeak out 27.7 FDP. I view Love as one of the power forwards with the most stable floor and also an insanely high ceiling, as he’s already demonstrated this season. With his price down to $7,500 on Fanduel, he needs 37.5 FDP to reach 5x value, something that while risky right now, is extremely attainable and surpassable.

David Lee ($5,100)

I expect David Lee to be the highest owned power forward on the slate for good reason. With Pau Gasol ruled out for the immediate future, Lee has stepped into a starting role and has failed to disappoint. Over his last two games (both starts), he’s averaged 12 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1 block per game over 34.5 minutes. Not only is the consistent double-double eye-catching, but the minutes bump is huge. In those games, Lee is averaging 0.998 Fanduel points per minute, literally becoming a point per minute machine. The Nets’ frontcourt is absolutely pathetic, allowing an average of 45.2 Fanduel points per game. As long as Lee sees above 30 minutes in this one, there is absolutely no way he doesn’t shatter 5x value.

Other preferred power forwards: Draymond Green ($8,200), LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600), Tobias Harris ($6,100)

Center

Rudy Gobert ($8,100)

There are really only two centers that I’ll be tinkering with tonight, the first of which is Rudy Gobert. He’s posted a double-double in 8 of his last 10 games, one of which was his ridiculous 27 point, 25 rebound effort against the Mavericks. He draws a matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight that completely hinges on the availability of Steven Adams. After going through non-contact portions of practice yesterday, he is still considered questionable after suffering a recent concussion. The Thunder have definitely felt the absence of Adams, giving up 56.3 Fanduel points per game to opposing centers over their last 5 games, as opposed to their 44.7 average on the season. If Adams sits again tonight, I would not argue you at all if you said Gobert will be one of the top two scoring centers tonight.

Myles Turner ($6,300)

While I love Gobert tonight, I’m leaning Myles Turner at the momeny strictly from a value standpoint. While Turner’s production has taken a bit of a dip lately, he’s got a get-right spot against the Knicks on tap tonight. Turner is average 15.6 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game on the season and is another shoe-in for at least 30 minutes on a nightly basis. The Knicks are the third worst team in the NBA when it comes to defending the center position, allowing an average of 49.3 Fanduel points per game to opposing centers. In their last meeting, Turner was only able to muster 13 points and 10 rebounds, but I fully expect him to outperform that game tonight. On top of that, the Knicks have been absolutely awful through the month of January, which could bode well for Turner’s peripheral stats. For $6,300, Turner needs about 31.5 FD points to reach 5x value, and I fully expect that to happen tonight.

Other preferred centers: DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900), DeAndre Jordan ($8,400), Marcin Gortat ($5,700)


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