DK NBA DFS – 01/17/17 First Glance

I am starting a “First Glance” article series that will either come out the night before or the early morning of the slate I am writing about. The goal for these articles is to give you guys something to read/look over during your morning research. Since we won’t have full injury updates, it won’t be as thorough, hence “First Glance”. These are just my very first thoughts about the slate when I first look at it. A lot of changes could happen throughout the day, but this article will be something that you can get started with every morning.

On Tuesday, we’re given a pretty nice 5-game slate. James Harden is the lone DFS star on the slate (unless you consider KAT a DFS star now) which means your lineup construction will come down to one thing: to play Harden or to fade Harden. I’ll give you my thoughts on this issue in my “Positional Plays” section, but it is something to ponder while you read the rest of this article.

Looking at games individually, we have 3 that really stick out. TOR@BKN and HOU@MIA both have very high O/U’s, but there is some blowout risk if you go that route. DEN@LAL is a game that has an absurd 228 O/U and should be a very tight game throughout (1.5 point spread). DAL@CHI is a game that will probably be a slower pace (under 200 point O/U) but it definitely could stay close so there could be some solid plays from that one. Lastly, Minnesota travels to San Antonio in a game that could easily get away from the T-Wolves. It helps that Lavine is back, but the Spurs are just on another level.

Positional Plays

Point Guard

Kyle Lowry – $8600 – @BKN

Be prepared to see A LOT of Raptors in this write-up because I don’t think Brooklyn could guard my grandma. The Raptors are coming in playing good basketball, scoring over 100 points in 8 of their last 10 games. Lowry is in a terrific spot here, for obvious reasons. If you watch the Raps at all, you see that Lowry seems to ALWAYS be on the court. The offense is primarily DeRozan and him doing work. There is some blowout potential though so there is at least SOME risk. He should still hit value in a blowout and still has an extremely high floor.

D’Angelo Russell – $7000 – vs DEN

I love Russell on Tuesday night. He’s a fantastic offensive player who’s playing a very bad defensive team at home. He’s in the highest over/under and in a game that should stay close. ALSO, Russell plays (primarily shoots) MUCH better at home. He averages a whole 5 DK points more at home compared to the road. ALSOOOO, Jordan Clarkson is questionable at the moment. If he’s out, then just fire up DeAngelo.

Jameer Nelson – $3100 – @LAL

This might be interesting to some people, but Nelson is probably my favorite value play on the slate. He’s basically min priced and still getting 25ish minutes a game. He’s playing the Lakers, who will all know are allergic to playing defense. He can EASILY hit value in a game that has the highest over/under and should play extremely close all the way to the buzzer.

Shooting Guard

James Harden – $12200 – @MIA

The lone star, MVP James Harden. He’s been absolutely fabulous this year and his price is showing it. $12,200 is an insane amount of money, but we’ve seen this boy put up a 100 burger this year, so if you think you can fit him, then he’s a fantastic play. He doesn’t have the greatest matchup, which means he might not be A MUST, but he’s matchup proof. At the moment, I haven’t decided if I’m going to play him or not. I have to do some lineup construction first, but if i can fit him, he’ll be in there.

DeMar DeRozan – $8500 – @BKN

See: Kyle Lowry

Dion Waiters – $5300 – vs HOU

Dion Waiters is someone who I like to call a “chucker”. He’s going to come in and get his shots up. If his shot is going in, he could SMASH value. He’s facing off against Houston, who we know doesn’t really play too much defense, especially at the shooting guard position. In a high over under, with Richardson being out and opening up minutes, I love Waiters in this spot.

Lou Williams – $4300 – vs DEN

If Clarkson is indeed out, that opens up more shots for Lou Will. We know he loves to come in and shoot it…so if that shot is falling, he could blow up and win you a lot of money.

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler – $9300 – vs DAL

Jimmy is a guy I love to play in cash games every night. He stuffs the statsheet, which leads to an extremely high floor. His shot doesn’t need to be falling for him to hit value, but at the same time, if his shot is falling he will CRUSH value. The Bulls should be healthy-ish on Tuesday, but that doesn’t stop Jimmy and his usage rate. It will be a pace down game for the Bulls, but his defensive peripherals plus ball handling and rebounding makes him my favorite SF on the slate.

Wilson Chandler – $6700 – @LAL 

Like I mentioned before, the Lakers can’t guard anywhere and anyone. Wilson Chandler’s price has gone up lately and is a little pricy for me at $6700, but I don’t know if I can ignore this matchup. This game is so juicy to where I wouldn’t blame you for playing 4-5 guys from it.

DeMarre Carroll – $5200 – @BKN

Carroll is another guy that could come in and fall into a couple steals/blocks/rebounds and hit a few shots and already be at value. With Lowry/DeRozan doing their thing, Carroll is often times getting wide open looks. We already know BKN can’t guard any position, so this might be a cheaper way to get exposure to Toronto. His price has risen, but I still think he hits value on Tuesday.

Power Forward

James Johnson – $6100 – vs HOU

PF is so ugly on Tuesday, so unless I’m using a SF or C at the PF position (MPE comes into play here) I’ll most likely be locking in James Johnson. He by far has the best matchup on the slate and has been playing very well and very consistent. There aren’t many big bodies left for the Heat, so he has to play. If this game stays close, he could blow up and CRUSH value.

Dirk Nowitzki – $6100 – @CHI

I definitely like JJ over Dirk, but I could see it if you decided to go this route. Dirk is finally back to playing consistent minutes and doing work in those minutes. He has a high floor which definitely makes him cash game viable. I like JJ more because it seems he has a similar floor but much more upside in a faster paced game.

Center

 

Nikola Jokic – $8100 – @LAL

He’s FINALLY been freed! Yes, Jokic is indeed my favorite play at center. He has a terrific matchup against the Lakers and has been playing great lately. We’ve already known he was a points/minute monster and now he’s finally getting the big minutes we’ve been hoping for! In a game that should stay close and be very upbeat, Jokic has an extremely high floor and high ceiling. He could very easily be my overall favorite play on the slate.

Hassan Whiteside – $8400 – vs HOU

Whiteside is also in a pretty solid spot. I don’t see any way Nene or Harrell can contain him, so this could he one of those 20/20 games. We’ve seen this dude’s potential to have a big game, so he’s definitely worth a look in tourney’s (also cash game viable with the UTIL spot on DK).

Lucas Nogueira – $4100 – @BKN

Hey look, another Raptor. Like I’ve said for all the other ones, BKN can’t guard ANYONE. Nogueira will probably get the nod at PF with Patterson most likely sitting out another game. At only $4100, he doesn’t need much to hit value. He also has the ability to double double when given the minutes. The way it’s looking right now, I’ll probably use Jokic and Nogueira in a lot of my lineups (THANK GOD FOR UTL).

 

This should rap up the very first “First Glance” article. Like I mentioned in the intro, this is just something to get your mind thinking in the morning. This one was probably more in depth than the future ones will be, but I wanted to give out as much information as possible. Also, on only a 5 game slate (with not a ton of uncertainty) we have a pretty guess who will be in and out.

If you have any questions regarding your lineup or anything DFS related, feel free to follow me on twitter (@breeden_bryce) or shoot your questions to the Fantasy Forecast twitter page (@FanForecast). Thanks for reading and good luck grinding!!!

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