Week one didn’t necessarily go as planned, as the players I highlighted in a handful of my articles were all over the place. The biggest disappointment from last week’s matchup article? Todd Gurley. He saw a stacked box nearly 85% of the time against the 49ers’ defense and it’s safe to say that his 17 rushing attempts for only 47 yards was nothing anybody could’ve predicted.
This week? I think you can assume where he falls on the exploit/avoid spectrum against the Seattle Seahawks. This article will be the exact same format as last week, with the addition of team defenses to the mix and remember, these are short and sweet, nothing too in-depth.
Exploit – Eli Manning vs New Orleans Saints
Personally, I think that Eli Manning will be the chalkiest quarterback in cash games, but it has yet to be seen which side of Eli will show up. If the matchup is any indication, you can expect the good Eli to show up. Last weekend, the Saints showed how vulnerable they are through the air, surrendering 319 passing yards (and allowing 486 total yards). While the Raiders have an impressive group of receivers, Derek Carr isn’t throwing to Odell Beckham, giving Eli a much larger advantage. Don’t be surprised if this game is the highest scoring on the slate and the quarterbacks are the primary beneficiaries.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER – DREW BREES VS NYG, MATTHEW STAFFORD VS TEN, CAM NEWTON VS TB
Avoid – Andrew Luck vs Denver Broncos
In a season-long format, you aren’t benching luck, heck, I’m not. In DFS formats? Fade. Cam was able to exploit the Broncos a bit last week, but Luck’s offensive line and running ability aren’t nearly as great as Cam’s. The Broncos were the stingiest secondary in the entire league last season, and with TY Hilton now hobbled, Andrew Luck doesn’t have the greatest outlook for the game this week.
OTHERS TO AVOID – RUSSELL WILSON VS LA, JAMEIS WINSTON VS ARI
Exploit – CJ Anderson vs Indianapolis Colts
If you can’t tell after his week 1 showing against the Panthers, Anderson is going to be the bell cow back this season with Trevor Siemien running the offense. The Colts’ defense is nothing compared to the Panthers. Last week, Ameer Abdullah and Theo Roddick combined to carve them up for 108 rushing and 120 receiving yards with 3 total touchdowns out of the backfield. Keep in mind that unlike those two backs, Anderson doesn’t find himself in a timeshare. Expect a huge game from CJ this weekend.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER – DAVID JOHNSON VS TB, TJ YELDON VS SD
Avoid – Todd Gurley vs Seattle Seahawks
This, like I said above, should be rather obvious. When Todd Gurley gets bottled up for 47 yards on 17 rushing attempts, you can bet you’ll find him in the avoid section against a much more stout Seattle Seahawks front seven. For his price on Fanduel of $8,400…no thank you.
OTHERS TO AVOID – DEVONTA FREEMAN VS OAK, ARIAN FOSTER VS NE
Exploit – Odell Beckham vs New Orleans Saints
This is very similar to the Eli Manning description. You guys saw what Amari Cooper (6 catches for 137 yards) and Michael Crabtree (7 for 87) were able to do to the New Orleans secondary, so why would you expect anything less from a player ten tiers above them? Lock in Odell in all season-long and DFS formats.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER – KELVIN BENJAMIN VS SF, AJ GREEN VS PITTSBURGH
Avoid – TY Hilton vs Denver Broncos
I mentioned it earlier, but Hilton was added to the injury report earlier this week with a knee issue, and that combined with the likelihood of being shadowed by Chris Harris doesn’t make for the most appealing matchup this week. I’m still expecting most people in season-long formats to be starting him, so temper your expectations a bit this week.
OTHERS TO AVOID – DEMARYIUS THOMAS VS IND (INJURY ISSUES), DONTE MONCRIEF VS DEN
Exploit – Delanie Walker vs Detroit Lions
In Week 1, the Lions surrendered a pair of touchdowns to someone named Jack Doyle. Yeah, who? Coach Mike Mularkey also emphasized his desire to get Walker the ball more, so combined that with the patheticness of the Lions defense and Walker should have a nice outing.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER – GARY BARNIDGE VS BAL, ROB GRONKOWSKI VS MIA
Avoid – Travis Kelce vs Houston Texans
There’s a ton of tight ends that I recommend avoiding because the position is so shallow, but if I’m going to choose a prominent one to fade this week, give me Kelce. Houston’s defense has been particularly stingy over the last could seasons and the Chiefs struggle to get the ball down the field at times.
OTHERS TO AVOID – COBY FLEENER VS NYG, JARED COOK VS MIN
Exploit – Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams
I don’t need to say anything. Fire them up and watch the points roll in.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER – BAL VS BROWNS, GB VS VIKINGS (GPP ONLY)
Avoid – Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans
Houston’s offense has taken a step forward this season now that they have a somewhat reliable quarterback in Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller. With their newfound ability to mix up the run/pass game, it makes their offense much more difficult to shut down.